Deye(SH:605117) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-10-30 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.24 billion yuan, up 42.8% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 128.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.1%. The net profit for Q3 reached 1.00 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 229.5% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 25.1% [2]. - The gross margin saw a substantial increase, likely due to optimized shipment structure, with Q3 gross margin at 44.5%, up 6.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite a general decline in the industry, the company maintained revenue and net profit growth in Q3, indicating strong channel advantages in emerging markets [2]. - Inventory increased slightly to 1.38 billion yuan, up 20.9% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to typhoon impacts and preparations for Q4 demand [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 11.57 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 54.68%, and net profit is expected to reach 2.90 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 62.06% [5]. - The diluted earnings per share for 2024E is estimated at 4.502 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 19.99 [5]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.90 billion yuan (+3%), 3.93 billion yuan (+10%), and 4.62 billion yuan (+9%), corresponding to P/E ratios of 20, 15, and 13 respectively [3][5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 31.84% for 2024E, gradually decreasing to 31.96% by 2026E [5]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from strong demand in the energy storage inverter and battery pack segments, particularly in regions like Germany and Ukraine [2]. - The report anticipates sustained performance growth in Q4 due to the end of the rainy season in Southeast Asia and the launch of new products [2].