Guoxin Securities·2024-10-30 10:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 46.142 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.799 billion yuan, up 2.35% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share were 1.090 yuan, reflecting a 0.93% increase year-on-year [2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily attributed to the strong performance of the equity market at the end of Q3 and significant growth in the fair value of financial instruments [2]. - Total assets increased by nearly 20%, reaching 1,731.716 billion yuan, with an effective leverage ratio rising to 4.64, up 0.37 percentage points from the end of 2023, providing a funding base for capital intermediary and other business operations [2]. - Investment business revenue reached 21.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.28%, driven by favorable equity market conditions and a 21.7% increase in trading financial assets compared to the end of 2023 [2]. - The company achieved investment banking revenue of 2.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 46.39%, impacted by a slowdown in IPO activity. However, it completed 34 equity underwriting projects, raising 34.3 billion yuan, maintaining the top market share at 14.85% [3]. - The company is expected to develop diversified equity financing business under new regulatory requirements and strengthen overseas equity financing, with mergers and acquisitions poised to become a new growth point [3]. - The company aims to deepen wealth management and global expansion, providing comprehensive financial solutions for enterprises [3]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards by 5.57%, 5.84%, and 5.98%, respectively, with expected net profits of 20.57 billion yuan, 22.62 billion yuan, and 24.34 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 10.0%, and 7.6% [4]. - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19.6, 17.8, and 16.6 for the years 2024-2026, and a PB ratio of 1.5 for 2024 and 2025, and 1.4 for 2026 [4].