SHUANGHUI(000895) 中原证券·2024-10-30 10:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with Q3 net profit increasing both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company is a leader in the domestic meat processing industry with a comprehensive product line and diverse product categories [6] - The company's valuation still has room for expansion, supported by its leading position and high dividend payout ratio [6] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 43.999 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.75% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.804 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.08% [3] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was RMB 6.913 billion, a year-on-year increase of 182.03% [3] - Q3 revenue was RMB 16.406 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.06%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.508 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.18% [3] Business Segments Packaged Meat Products - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 19.201 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.71% [4] - Operating profit was RMB 5.213 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.65%, with an operating profit margin of 27.15%, up 3.65 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Q3 revenue was RMB 6.828 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.01%, and operating profit was RMB 1.890 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.92% [4] Fresh Products - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 21.826 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.99% [5] - Operating profit was RMB 340 million, a year-on-year decrease of 46.73%, with an operating profit margin of 1.56%, down 1.10 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Q3 revenue was RMB 8.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.03%, and operating profit was RMB 90 million, a year-on-year decrease [5] Valuation and Forecasts - Estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024/2025/2026 is RMB 5.441 billion, RMB 6.045 billion, and RMB 5.926 billion, respectively [6] - EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is estimated at RMB 1.57, RMB 1.74, and RMB 1.71, respectively [6] - Current P/E ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are 15.47x, 13.93x, and 14.21x, respectively [6] Market Data - Closing price as of October 29, 2024: RMB 24.30 [2] - Market capitalization: RMB 84.178 billion [2] - P/B ratio: 4.22x [2] - Net asset per share: RMB 5.75 [2] - ROE (diluted): 19.09% [2] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 47.24% [2] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is compared with peers such as Huatong Co Ltd, Longda Foodstuff Group Co Ltd, and Yuanming Meat Industry Co Ltd [10] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 17.06x, compared to Huatong Co Ltd's 11.06x and Longda Foodstuff Group Co Ltd's 59.83x [10]