KEDE Numerical (688305) 东吴证券·2024-10-30 10:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand for five-axis machine tools, with revenue increasing by 30.32% year-on-year to 381 million yuan and net profit rising by 11.53% to 72 million yuan [2] - The company has launched a restricted stock incentive plan, reflecting confidence in long-term development, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth [5] - Despite a slight decline in gross margin, the company has optimized expense management, leading to improved operational efficiency [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 381 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30.32%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 72 million yuan, up 11.53% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue reached 126 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.35%, while net profit was 24 million yuan, up 38.49% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 42.67%, a decrease of 2.73 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 41.20%, down 4.12 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s inventory increased by 20.07% to 566 million yuan, and contract liabilities rose by 10.77% to 60 million yuan, indicating a healthy order backlog [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 119 million yuan (previously 165 million), 171 million yuan (previously 241 million), and 252 million yuan (previously 334 million), respectively [5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to P/E ratios of 65, 45, and 31 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]