固德威：3季度业绩低于预期；下调至中性评级

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating of the company to "Neutral" from "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was below expectations, with revenue and net profit of RMB 1.795 billion and RMB 32.5 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.2% and 78.6% [1][2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to slow recovery in high-margin European household storage shipments and a slowdown in new installations in mainland China [1][2]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance in Q4 and the following year, despite a short-term decline in exports to Europe due to factors like typhoons and holidays [2][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 7.353 billion, a year-on-year growth of 56.1%, followed by a slight decline to RMB 7.276 billion in 2024 [3][9]. - Net profit is expected to drop significantly to RMB 148 million in 2024, down from RMB 852 million in 2023, with a recovery to RMB 603 million in 2025 [3][9]. - The report adjusts the earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 71%, 21%, and 20%, respectively, to RMB 148 million, RMB 603 million, and RMB 790 million [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at RMB 57.10, indicating a potential upside of 5.6% from the current price of RMB 54.07 [1][4]. - The valuation benchmark has been raised from 18 times to 23 times the 2025 earnings, reflecting a significant increase in market valuations [2][3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 88.2 in 2024, decreasing to 21.7 in 2025 and 16.6 in 2026 [3][9].