GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-10-30 10:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 has significantly improved due to the ramp-up of overseas core mines, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 17.52% to CNY 154.755 billion and a net profit increase of 238.62% to CNY 8.273 billion [1] - The copper production for the first three quarters reached 476,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 78.20%, indicating strong operational performance [1] - The report highlights the expectation of future production increases from ongoing projects, with potential annual copper production reaching 1 million tons by 2028 [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 51.936 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.53%, and a net profit of CNY 2.856 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.12% [1] - The average international copper price increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, contributing to revenue growth despite a slight decline in Q3 [1] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 197.5 billion, CNY 207.3 billion, and CNY 216.9 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 11.064 billion, CNY 12.459 billion, and CNY 14.307 billion [2][10] Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the macroeconomic outlook in the U.S., which is expected to positively influence industrial metal prices, including copper [1] - The anticipated increase in credit scale for "white list" projects in China is expected to support demand for copper, further enhancing the company's profitability [1] - The company is expected to benefit from high business concentration in the copper and cobalt sectors, which will solidify its profit margins as production increases [1]