NJTC(601975) Guolian Securities·2024-10-30 10:10Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][10]. Core Views - The company has transformed into a stable operator after overcoming significant challenges over the past thirty years, aiming to become a "global leader in small and medium-sized liquid cargo transportation services" [2][16]. - The domestic oil and chemical gas business provides a profit safety net, while the foreign trade refined oil business offers profit elasticity, supported by the largest MR fleet in the Far East [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a history of asset restructuring, losses, and a return to profitability, now focusing on stable operations [2][16]. - It is controlled by China Changjiang Shipping Group and China Merchants Group, with a strong market position in domestic and foreign oil transportation [2][18]. Refined Oil Transportation Supply and Demand - The refined oil tanker market is expected to see improved earnings due to a tight supply-demand balance, with increased demand driven by geopolitical tensions [6][29]. - The supply side is constrained by a low order book and aging fleets, limiting future growth in capacity [6][29]. Domestic and Foreign Trade Business - The company ranks second in domestic crude oil shipping and leads in chemical product transportation, with stable profitability in these segments [6][8]. - The foreign trade refined oil business is expected to benefit from market upturns, with significant profit elasticity projected [6][10]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are estimated at 70.6 billion, 74.4 billion, and 76.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 20.9 billion, 21.2 billion, and 21.8 billion yuan [10][11]. - The report anticipates a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% for revenue and 11.9% for net profit [10][11]. Investment Highlights - Short-term benefits from geopolitical tensions are expected to sustain high earnings for refined oil tankers [11]. - Long-term growth is supported by the shift in global refining capacity and limited new ship deliveries, enhancing profit potential [11][29].