嘉友国际：单季度业绩增速回落，但全年高增长无忧

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.81 RMB based on a 15x PE for 2024 [3][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a slowdown in growth for Q3 2024, with a net profit of 329 million RMB, a 30% year-over-year increase. However, the net profit for the first three quarters reached 1.09 billion RMB, reflecting a 44.73% year-over-year growth [1][11]. - The growth in Mongolian coal volumes has slowed in the second half of the year due to weak domestic demand and high inventory levels, impacting Q3 supply chain performance. However, a recovery is anticipated in Q4 due to winter demand [2][11]. - The African logistics business is expanding rapidly, with the company replicating its Mongolian operations in Africa, aiming to establish a second growth curve. The logistics project in Congo has shown significant growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [2][3][11]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 1.62 billion RMB, 2.14 billion RMB, and 2.68 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.65 RMB, 2.19 RMB, and 2.74 RMB [3][11]. - Revenue projections are set at 9.45 billion RMB for 2024, 12.06 billion RMB for 2025, and 15.61 billion RMB for 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 35.0%, 27.7%, and 29.3% respectively [4][9].