证券研究报告 交通运输 加码航空/油运，配置公路 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 05 日│中国内地 专题研究 看好春运催化航空，交易油运运价上行，配置公路 展望 2 月，春运旺季开启，我们看好三条投资主线：1）航空：春节假期较 长，二次出行、反内卷、返乡/学生/旅游客流重叠等有望催化新一轮行情。 我们坚定看好行业供需格局改善，行业高景气从高客座率向票价提升传导， 首选三大航 A/H。2）油运：1 月委内瑞拉/伊朗局势升级，合规油运市场运 力不足，往后展望，地缘扰动有望进一步催化油运运价上行。3）公路：贵 金属价格剧烈波动，2 月市场波动率或放大，作为稳定型红利的公路板块具 备配置价值，叠加近期货运高景气、春运旺季到来，首选皖通高速 H，招商 公路。此外，我们优选部分个股：极兔速递（海外电商高增），嘉友国际（非 洲陆港通车量高增+中蒙回升），东航物流（景气修复+高股息），顺丰控 股 A/H（估值底部+盈利修复）。 航空：看好春运数据催化；机场：关注新产能投产对利润的影响 25 年民航客座率高位提升至 85.1%，票价同比前低后高。短期我们看好春 运数据成为新一轮股价催化，主因 26 年春节假期较长、二次出行、 ...

2月2日，嘉友国际跌4.93%，成交额2.00亿元。两融数据显示，当日嘉友国际获融资买入额1460.90万 元，融资偿还1466.12万元，融资净买入-5.22万元。截至2月2日，嘉友国际融资融券余额合计2.15亿 元。 融资方面，嘉友国际当日融资买入1460.90万元。当前融资余额2.15亿元，占流通市值的1.20%，融资余 额超过近一年50%分位水平，处于较高位。 融券方面，嘉友国际2月2日融券偿还1100.00股，融券卖出1.26万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 16.53万元；融券余量4.40万股，融券余额57.75万元，低于近一年20%分位水平，处于低位。 资料显示，嘉友国际物流股份有限公司位于北京市石景山区城通街26号院2号楼23-24层，成立日期2005 年6月22日，上市日期2018年2月6日，公司主营业务涉及跨境多式联运、大宗矿产品物流、智能仓储等 跨境多式联运综合物流服务及供应链贸易服务。主营业务收入构成为：供应链贸易服务62.06%，跨境 多式联运综合物流服务29.83%，陆港项目服务7.57%，PPP项目合同0.53%，其他0.02%。 截至9月30日，嘉友国际股东户数2.29万，较上 ...

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 0.68% on January 29, with Tian Shun Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Top Gainers in Logistics Sector - Tian Shun Co. (002800) closed at 16.68, up 3.86% with a trading volume of 90,800 shares and a turnover of 150 million yuan [1] - Jianfa Co. (600153) closed at 9.65, up 3.21% with a trading volume of 482,500 shares [1] - Hengji Daxin (002492) closed at 9.13, up 2.82% with a trading volume of 263,100 shares and a turnover of 240 million yuan [1] - Milkway (603713) closed at 63.79, up 2.62% with a trading volume of 36,000 shares and a turnover of 230 million yuan [1] - Jia You International (603871) closed at 13.81, up 2.07% with a trading volume of 99,600 shares [1] Top Losers in Logistics Sector - Changjiang Investment (600119) closed at 7.25, down 9.94% with a trading volume of 37,800 shares and a turnover of 27.42 million yuan [2] - ST Yuanshang (603813) closed at 39.90, down 3.69% with a trading volume of 6,332 shares and a turnover of 25.57 million yuan [2] - Pu Lu Tong (002769) closed at 11.57, down 3.26% with a trading volume of 158,100 shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 27.94 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 199 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 227 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in several companies, including SF Holding (002352) with a net inflow of 16.21 million yuan [3] - China Foreign Transport (601598) had a significant net inflow of 39.42 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 20.76% of its trading volume [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, YTO Express, and Spring Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with China's market expected to reach CNY 1.2 trillion by 2026 and over CNY 2 trillion by 2030, driven by a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026 [8][10]. - Alibaba's commitment to the instant retail sector is strong, with significant investments leading to a peak order volume of 120 million for Taobao Flash Sales in December 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [12][15]. - SF Express is positioned as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service, benefiting from the industry's rapid growth and increasing demand for delivery services [30][18]. Summary by Sections Instant Delivery Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching CNY 1.2 trillion by 2026 and over CNY 2 trillion by 2030 [10][12]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in instant retail are evident, with a focus on expanding beyond food delivery to a broader range of products, resulting in substantial order growth [13][15]. - SF Express is highlighted as a key player in the instant delivery market, with a 49% revenue growth in H1 2025 and a significant increase in order volume [18][21]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is recovering from a seasonal downturn, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 1.4% week-on-week, and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32][43]. - The cargo segment is also seeing a recovery, with stable freight rates and increased demand expected as the Chinese New Year approaches [50][57]. - Recommendations include focusing on major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from improved demand and pricing [57][61]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has shown resilience, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2025, despite challenges in pricing [61][75]. - The report notes a stabilization in single-package pricing, with significant growth in market share for companies like SF Express and YTO Express [75][81]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to lead to improved profitability for express delivery companies as competition becomes more structured [81][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, YTO Express, and Eastern Airlines Logistics, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with China's market expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026 [8][10]. - Alibaba's commitment to the instant retail sector is strong, with significant investments aimed at expanding beyond food delivery into a full range of instant retail services, evidenced by a peak of 120 million daily orders on Taobao Flash Purchase [12][15]. - SF Express is highlighted as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service, benefiting from the industry's growth and increasing demand for delivery services [30][18]. - The airline industry is recovering from a seasonal downturn, with domestic flight numbers increasing by 1.4% week-on-week, and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32][43]. - The air cargo sector is also seeing a recovery, with stable freight rates and increased demand expected as the Chinese New Year approaches [50][57]. - The express delivery industry is stabilizing, with a slight increase in average revenue per package, and major players like SF Express and YTO Express gaining market share [61][75]. Summary by Sections Instant Delivery Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10][18]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in instant retail are reshaping the market, with a focus on expanding beyond traditional food delivery [12][15]. - SF Express is positioned as a key player in the instant delivery sector, benefiting from rapid growth and increased order volumes [30][18]. Airline Industry - The airline sector is showing signs of recovery, with domestic flight operations increasing and ticket prices rising [32][43]. - The air cargo market is stabilizing, with expectations of increased demand leading up to the Chinese New Year [50][57]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery market is stabilizing, with slight improvements in revenue per package and market share gains for major companies [61][75]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the industry, which is expected to lead to improved profitability for express delivery companies [81].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Overweight" indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The total market value of transportation industry funds reached 21.5 billion, a 19% increase from the previous quarter, ranking 16th among 31 industries [5][6]. - The proportion of holdings in the aviation transportation, ports, cross-border logistics, and highways sectors has increased, with respective shares of 56.8%, 3.4%, 4.6%, and 4.8%, showing significant increases [12]. - The top ten holdings in the transportation industry funds include China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, SF Express, and others, with notable growth rates for China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines at 448% and 244% respectively [20][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Fund Holdings - The total market value of transportation industry funds reached 21.5 billion, a 19% increase from Q3, with a 1 rank increase in the industry ranking [5][6]. - The transportation industry fund holdings accounted for 1.32% of all fund heavy holdings, up by 0.24 percentage points from Q3 [10]. 2. Sector Performance - The market value changes for various sectors within the transportation industry showed significant fluctuations, with aviation transportation increasing by 80% and express delivery decreasing by 39% [12]. - The holdings in the aviation transportation sector have increased significantly, while express delivery and shipping sectors have seen declines [12]. 3. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings in the transportation industry funds include: - China Eastern Airlines: 45 billion, up 448% - Southern Airlines: 31 billion, up 244% - SF Express: 11 billion, down 16% [20][23]. - Other notable stocks with over 3 billion in total market value and growth rates exceeding 10% include Spring Airlines and Jiayou International [20].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics sector experienced a decline of 0.42% on January 21, with Jiayou International leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.7% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The logistics sector's individual stock performance showed significant variations, with Jushen Co. rising by 10.03% to close at 20.19, while Jiayou International fell by 2.62% to 14.12 [1][2] - The trading volume for Jushen Co. was 177,500 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 352 million yuan [1] - The overall net capital flow in the logistics sector indicated a net outflow of 62.58 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 34.05 million yuan [2][3] Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - Jushen Co. had a net inflow of 56.31 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 15.98% of its trading volume, while retail investors had a net outflow of 1.35 million yuan [3] - Shunfeng Holdings experienced a net inflow of 32.22 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 33.46 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Xiamen Xiangyu saw a net inflow of 10.79 million yuan from retail investors, despite a net outflow from institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 1.05% on January 15, with Debon Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Debon Holdings (603056) closed at 16.98, up 9.97% with a trading volume of 15,200 [1] - Jiayou International (603871) closed at 14.42, up 3.30% with a trading volume of 185,000 [1] - Tiens Holdings (002800) closed at 17.31, up 3.22% with a trading volume of 113,900 [1] - YTO Express (600233) closed at 17.05, up 2.59% with a trading volume of 335,000 [1] - SF Holding (002352) closed at 39.19, up 1.66% with a trading volume of 474,100 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector saw a net inflow of 174 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 80.49 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like SF Holding had a net inflow of 164 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - Debon Holdings had a significant institutional net inflow of 15.11 million yuan, representing 58.69% of its trading volume [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 嘉友国际 (Jiayou International) has seen a stock price increase of 5.52%, reaching 14.73 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 176 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.89%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 20.151 billion CNY [1] - 嘉友国际 is engaged in cross-border multimodal transport, bulk mineral product logistics, intelligent warehousing, and supply chain trade services, with the revenue composition being 62.06% from supply chain trade services, 29.83% from cross-border multimodal transport, 7.57% from land port project services, 0.53% from PPP project contracts, and 0.02% from other services [1] Group 2 - 嘉实基金 (Jia Shi Fund) has a significant holding in 嘉友国际, with 嘉实物流产业股票A (Jia Shi Logistics Industry Stock A, 003298) holding 1.9933 million shares, accounting for 4.09% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth largest holding [2] - 嘉实物流产业股票A has a current scale of 288 million CNY, with a year-to-date loss of 0.65% and a one-year return of 16.99%, ranking 3554 out of 4208 in its category [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of 嘉实物流产业股票A is 肖觅 (Xiao Mi), who has been in the position for 9 years and 20 days, managing assets totaling 5.345 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 165.7% and the worst being -41.69% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see significant growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong VLCC freight rates and structural changes in trade dynamics, including new refinery capacities and geopolitical shifts [4]. - The aviation sector is projected to enter a golden era, with passenger transport expected to reach 770 million in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from 2024 and a 16.7% increase from 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the shipping industry from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics, particularly in shipbuilding, as older vessels are replaced [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding sectors are facing challenges due to trade tensions, impacting profit margins and demand [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Q4 2025 VLCC freight rates are expected to average around $95,500 per day, with a projected demand increase of 1.7% from new refinery capacities and a 2.1% increase from compliance changes in Venezuelan oil [4]. - The dry bulk market is also showing strong performance, with Cape-sized vessel rates expected to rise by 20% to $27,600 per day [4]. - The report estimates that COSCO Shipping Energy's Q4 earnings will be approximately 1.9 billion RMB, while China Merchants Energy's will be around 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with second-hand ship prices rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding sector is facing profit margin compression due to trade frictions, with the CCFI index expected to decline by 26% in Q4 2025 [4]. Aviation - The Chinese aviation market is expected to achieve a profit of 6.5 billion RMB in 2025, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines anticipated to see significant performance improvements [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of international routes as passenger volumes are expected to grow, driven by a recovery in outbound travel [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 5% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by price increases and seasonal demand, despite challenges from trade policies [4]. Road and Rail - The report notes a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continue to increase, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [4].