ACC(600585) 东吴证券·2024-10-30 11:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 68.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.198 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.3% and 40.1% respectively [1] - In Q3, domestic demand remained weak, leading to continued bottoming of cement profitability. The national cement production decreased by 10.7% year-on-year from January to September, with the decline in Q3 being more pronounced due to extreme weather and tight funding in downstream sectors [1] - The company's gross margin in Q3 was 20.8%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to a reduction in the proportion of low-margin trading business [1] - The company effectively controlled its operating expenses, which decreased by 9.6% year-on-year in Q3, resulting in a net profit margin of 8.2%, significantly outperforming the industry average [1] - The report anticipates significant improvement in profitability in Q4, supported by enhanced industry self-discipline and potential policy measures to stabilize demand [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 144.464 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.354 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.61 [1] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 10.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, indicating effective management of receivables [1] Industry Outlook - The report highlights that the cement industry is experiencing a downturn, but self-discipline measures are beginning to show results, with expectations for price rebounds in Q4 [1] - The report suggests that the cement sector's valuation is at historical lows, and with improved self-discipline, leading companies are likely to see valuation recovery [1] Investment Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company at 83.5 billion yuan, 97.4 billion yuan, and 112.1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 17, 14, and 12 respectively [1]