电子行业2025年投资策略

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The investment strategy for 2025 focuses on the rising demand for AR and the continued growth of mature processes in the semiconductor sector [1] - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow driven by advanced processes, with AI applications becoming a key observation point [1] - The report highlights the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials localization, as the self-sufficiency rate remains low [1] - The demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is projected to grow significantly, with a near 200% growth rate expected in 2024 and a potential doubling in 2025 [1][17] - The report identifies the recovery of the PC market driven by AI PCs and a stable growth outlook for the smartphone market in 2024 [1][21][26] Semiconductor Sector Summary - Market Dynamics: The global semiconductor sales are expected to be driven by advanced processes, with a focus on AI applications [1][6] - Domestic Production: The self-sufficiency rate of the domestic semiconductor industry is low, leading to continued expansion in mature processes [1][9] - Equipment Spending: Significant growth in semiconductor equipment sales is anticipated, with a forecasted increase in production capacity [1][11] AR Sector Summary - Optical Systems: The differentiation in AR display systems is primarily based on optical components, with various technologies being evaluated for their effectiveness [1][30] - Market Trends: The combination of Micro OLED with Birdbath and MicroLED with waveguides is expected to benefit from AI advancements [1][32] Demand Insights - Server Market: AI is the main driver for server demand, with a projected shipment of approximately 13.65 million units in 2024, reflecting a 2.05% year-on-year growth [1][21] - PC Market: The global PC market is expected to see a 1% year-on-year increase in shipments, driven by AI PC sales [1][23] - Smartphone Market: The global smartphone market is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year in 2024, with a stable demand in the domestic market [1][26]