有色金属2024年三季度机构配置综述：Q3超配依旧，Q4加工可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with a focus on aluminum, rare earth magnetic materials, and PCB/CCL new materials [2][3]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, funds have reduced their holdings in copper and gold, but the non-ferrous metals sector remains in an overweight position overall. The sector saw a 10.8% increase, trailing the CSI 300 index by 5.3 percentage points [3][6]. - The report highlights a favorable outlook for aluminum, rare earth magnetic materials, and PCB copper foil/CCL, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a recovery in domestic demand [3][27][28][29]. - The report suggests increasing positions in rare earth magnetic materials, with recommended stocks including Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Kinglife Permanent Magnet [3][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector followed the market's upward trend in Q3 2024, with a notable rebound in late September after a significant price drop earlier in the quarter [6][9]. - The overall market saw a decline in the prices of base and precious metals, while the sector's market capitalization increased [9][11]. Sub-Industry Analysis - The report indicates that funds have significantly reduced their positions in copper and gold, with copper holdings down by 14 basis points and gold by 8 basis points compared to Q2 2024 [20][21]. - Industrial metals experienced a slight reduction in holdings but remain at historically high levels, with an overweight position of 136 basis points [16][19]. Stock Analysis - The top twenty non-ferrous stocks saw a slight decrease in holdings from 2.07% in Q2 2024 to 1.76% in Q3 2024, indicating a slight reduction in institutional interest [24][25]. - Key stocks in focus include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum, which continue to attract market attention despite the overall reduction in holdings [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the aluminum sector, driven by improved domestic demand and ongoing manufacturing upgrades, suggesting a focus on companies with high self-sufficiency in bauxite supply [27]. - The PCB/CCL sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer electronics and government policies, with projected growth in market size from $21.01 billion in 2023 to $28.14 billion by 2030 [28]. - The rare earth magnetic materials sector is anticipated to see growth driven by increasing demand from electric vehicles and wind power, with recommendations to focus on companies with strong resource flexibility [29][30].