ACC(600585) 国信证券·2024-10-30 12:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in profitability, supported by its leading position in the industry. The recent price increases in cement are anticipated to enhance short-term profitability, while medium-term improvements in supply-side policies may further benefit the company [2][11]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit due to falling cement prices and demand, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 31.27% and a net profit decline of 40.05% for the first nine months of 2024 [5][11]. - Despite the challenges, the company has shown signs of recovery in profitability, with a gross margin of 19.5% for the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year [6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 681.5 billion yuan, down 31.27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 51.98 billion yuan, down 40.05% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) was 0.99 yuan [5][11]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 225.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.89% year-on-year, but the profit decline was significantly narrowed compared to the first two quarters [5][11]. Profitability Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 19.5% for the first nine months of 2024, with quarterly gross margins showing improvement: 17.7% in Q1, 20.0% in Q2, and 20.8% in Q3 [6][11]. - The net profit margin for the first nine months was 7.7%, with a notable recovery in Q3, where the net profit margin reached 8.3% [6][11]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The company maintained a strong cash flow position, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 103.48 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year [9][11]. - As of the end of September 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 769.06 billion yuan, indicating a solid liquidity position [9][11]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 1.59, 1.67, and 1.80 yuan, respectively, reflecting the impact of previous volume and price pressures [2][11].