Hunan Gold(SZ:002155) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-30 12:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) based on its potential to benefit from rising commodity prices [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.99 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 667 million yuan, up 73.56% year-on-year. However, the Q3 performance was slightly below expectations due to a decline in sales volume [1]. - The decline in production and sales was primarily due to the suspension of operations at its subsidiary, Xinlong Mining, which affected the company's output and sales figures [1]. - The average gold price for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2,290 USD/ounce, an increase of 18.58% year-on-year, while the average price for Q3 was 2,473 USD/ounce, up 28.39% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on exploration and resource enhancement, with a plan for a new three-year exploration initiative from 2024 to 2026 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.40% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 229 million yuan, up 118.57% year-on-year but down 17.02% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 7.61%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.22%, up 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Production and Sales - The company's self-produced gold sales decreased by 4.61% year-on-year, and self-produced antimony sales fell by 15.66% due to the suspension of Xinlong Mining and export controls on antimony products [1]. - The company has a resource reserve of 68 million tons of ore, with 307,324 tons of antimony metal and 141,756 kilograms of gold metal as of the end of 2023 [1]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to benefit from rising prices, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 891 million, 1.195 billion, and 1.410 billion yuan, respectively. The report suggests a price-to-earnings ratio of 23, 17, and 14 for these years based on the stock price as of October 28 [2][1].