思维列控：Q3业绩超预期，存量更新需求有望持续释放

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, driven by a significant increase in orders and project acceptance. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 906 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.83%, and a net profit of 328 million yuan, up 33.98% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing demand for stock updates and technological upgrades in the rail transit equipment sector, with a stable industry landscape supporting sustainable revenue growth [3][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 347 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.16%, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, up 94.21% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 64.73%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 39.7%, up 3.95 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 246 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.13% [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 537 million yuan, 645 million yuan, and 769 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.2%, 20.3%, and 19.1% [3][6]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 1.41 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 2.02 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.8, 13.9, and 11.7 [3][6]. Market Position and Product Demand - The company holds a market share of over 49% for its LKJ system, with a significant replacement demand expected as the lifecycle of existing systems approaches its end [1][2]. - The railway safety business and high-speed rail segments are also anticipated to maintain growth, supported by increasing demand for product upgrades and technological advancements [2][3].