CIMC VEHICLES(301039)2024-10-30 12:46Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in gross margin and an increase in domestic sales year-on-year, indicating potential for profit elasticity [2][4]. - The company is a global leader in semi-trailer production, benefiting from a recovering domestic heavy truck market and stable overseas markets, which provides significant growth opportunities [4][5]. - The company has implemented various productivity enhancement plans, leading to improved operational quality and profitability [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 15.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 840 million yuan, down 63.0% [3]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a net profit of 280 million yuan, a decline of 26.5% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 improved by 3.0 percentage points to 17.6%, returning to the level of the same period last year [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters reached 1.53 billion yuan, an increase of 19.7% year-on-year [4]. Sales and Market Performance - In Q3, the sales volume of the Starlink Lighthouse Pioneer Group increased by 20.1% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 21.2% [4]. - The company’s specialized vehicle sales saw a significant increase of 38.6% year-on-year, with revenue up by 25.1% [4]. - The company’s stock price has fluctuated between 7.61 and 13.15 yuan over the past 52 weeks, currently priced at 10.47 yuan [2][4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 22.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 33% and 11% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a decline of 47%, with subsequent growth rates of 31% and 16% in the following years [7][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.70 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.06 yuan by 2026 [7][10].