SD-GOLD(SH:600547) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-30 14:00Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained at "Buy" for Shandong Gold [1] Core Views - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to drive performance, with a positive outlook for Q4 single-quarter net profit release [3][4] - The company achieved revenue of 67.006 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 62.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.066 billion yuan, up 53.57% year-on-year [3] - The company has a significant increase in gold production, with a year-on-year growth of 19.58% in Q1-Q3 2024, totaling 35.44 tons [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards due to potential unsold gold inventory and production capacity adjustments [3] - Expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.595 billion yuan, 4.042 billion yuan, and 4.537 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.80, 0.90, and 1.01 yuan [3][6] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve to 19.4% in 2024, with a net margin of 4.4% [6][13] Production and Capacity Updates - The company is on track to achieve an annual gold production target of 47 tons, supported by the resumption of operations at Linglong Mine and the completion of mining rights integration at Jiaoji Mine [5] - The Jiaoji Mine is a core production area with a mining license for 6.6 million tons per year, enhancing the company's production capacity [5] Market Outlook - The average gold price in Q4 2024 is expected to be at a yearly high, with the potential for the company's Q4 net profit to exceed expectations [4] - The company’s stock is currently priced at 27.09 yuan, with a market capitalization of 121.185 billion yuan [8]