万华化学：Q3业绩承压，新项目稳步推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13% [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 50.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27% [2][6] - The decline in profit in Q3 was attributed to maintenance shutdowns at major facilities in Yantai and Europe, along with a decrease in product prices, while raw material prices remained high. However, recovery of production capacity post-maintenance is expected to improve profitability in the short term [2][6] - The company has a robust pipeline of projects in polyurethane, petrochemicals, and new materials, with a balance of ongoing construction projects amounting to 69.7 billion yuan as of the end of Q3 2024, which is expected to contribute to performance growth in the future [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the polyurethane segment generated revenue of 18.8 billion yuan, with production and sales volumes of 1.38 million tons and 1.41 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 16% and 14% [6] - The petrochemical segment's production and sales volumes were 1.3 million tons and 1.32 million tons, respectively, both down 6% quarter-on-quarter, while revenue was 22.4 billion yuan, up 42% year-on-year [6] - The fine chemicals and new materials segment achieved sales of 500,000 tons, with revenue of 7.02 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11% [6] Future Outlook - The company expects operating revenues for 2024-2026 to be 191.3 billion yuan, 222.7 billion yuan, and 257.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 16%, and 16%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 15.3 billion yuan, 18.6 billion yuan, and 22.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -9%, +22%, and +23% [6][7] - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the MDI market and is transitioning towards a comprehensive chemical company, justifying the "Buy" rating [6][7]