CNOOC(600938) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-30 14:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 34.3 CNY, compared to the current price of 27.11 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 326.02 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion CNY, up 19.47% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue for Q3 was 99.25 billion CNY, showing a decrease of 13.51% year-on-year and 13.92% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit for the same period was 36.93 billion CNY, reflecting an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - CNOOC achieved oil and gas sales revenue of approximately 271.43 billion CNY in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The revenue from oil liquids and natural gas was 235.38 billion CNY and 36.06 billion CNY, respectively, with increases of 14.6% and 9.4% year-on-year. The growth was driven by increased sales volume, higher realized prices, and exchange rate fluctuations [2]. - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 79.03 USD per barrel, while the price for natural gas decreased by 1.8% to 7.78 USD per thousand cubic feet [2]. - The total oil and gas production for the first three quarters was 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year, primarily due to contributions from domestic oil and gas fields and the Payara project in Guyana [2]. Capital Expenditure and Growth - CNOOC's capital expenditure for Q1-Q3 2024 was 95.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. This includes exploration, development, and production expenditures of 13.85 billion CNY, 61.79 billion CNY, and 17.97 billion CNY, respectively [2]. - The company made nine new discoveries and successfully evaluated 23 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters, indicating strong exploration prospects [2]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 182.77 billion CNY, significantly exceeding capital expenditures. The company has sufficient cash flow to support shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% for 2022-2024 [2]. - The report anticipates that the net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 152.7 billion CNY, 163.0 billion CNY, and 170.9 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 8, and 8 [2][3].