Minsheng Securities·2024-10-30 19:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 154.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.27 billion yuan, up 239% year-on-year [1][10]. - The significant growth in performance is attributed to a substantial increase in copper and cobalt sales, alongside rising commodity prices, despite some losses from expenses and taxes [1][10]. - The company has exceeded production targets for copper and cobalt, with cobalt production reaching 130.31% of its annual target by the third quarter [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Event - The company released its Q3 2024 report on October 28, 2024, showing strong performance in revenue and net profit [1][5]. 2. Performance Analysis - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 51.94 billion yuan, a 15.5% increase year-on-year but an 8.4% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.856 billion yuan, reflecting a 64.12% increase year-on-year but a 14.64% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. 3. Production and Sales - The company’s copper and cobalt production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 476,000 tons and 84,700 tons, respectively, marking increases of 78.18% and 127.33% year-on-year [1][12]. - The production of molybdenum and tungsten remained stable, with slight declines in molybdenum output [1][13]. 4. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve copper production of 800,000 to 1 million tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons by 2028, with a projected CAGR of 16.5% for copper and 11.3% for cobalt from 2023 to 2028 [1][10]. - Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected at 11.134 billion, 13.519 billion, and 14.212 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.52, 0.63, and 0.66 yuan [1][2]. 5. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that with the ongoing ramp-up of projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the company is well-positioned for growth, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][10].