Yongan Futures(SH:600927) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-30 21:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 18.67 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 25% to 4.2 billion yuan [1]. - The investment business revenue saw significant growth, with investment income increasing by 141.1% year-on-year, while other income sources such as commission and interest income faced declines [1]. - The report highlights the challenges faced by the futures brokerage business, with a year-on-year decrease in trading volume and a 34.9% drop in commission income in Q3 2024 [1]. Financial Summary - Total operating revenue for 2023 is projected at 23,822.68 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 5.1% in 2024, 17.1% in 2025, and 16.7% in 2026 [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 728.58 million yuan in 2023, with a decline of 24.9% expected in 2024, followed by a recovery to 714.85 million yuan in 2025 and 800.15 million yuan in 2026 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.50 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.38 yuan in 2024, and gradually increasing to 0.55 yuan by 2026 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 29.52 in 2024, 39.25 in 2025, and 30.05 in 2026 [2]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at 18.17 yuan, based on a 37 times PE valuation for the 2025 earnings [1][3]. - The current price is noted at 14.76 yuan, indicating potential upside based on the target price [3]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the futures brokerage industry and is expected to benefit from favorable policies aimed at enhancing the quality of the futures market [1]. - The report emphasizes the long-term positive outlook for the futures industry, particularly following the introduction of new trading products and regulatory support [1].