Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical (SH:603599) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-30 21:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.52 CNY, compared to the current price of 10.89 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.49 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.46%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 56.61% to 574 million CNY [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.20 billion CNY, which is a decrease of 8.83% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 12.23% year-on-year. The net profit for Q3 was 162 million CNY, down 46.09% quarter-on-quarter and 13.37% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved to 30.66% in Q3, up 0.35 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin decreased to 13.47%, down 3.98 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to rising financial expenses [2]. - The company’s financial expenses in Q3 were 20 million CNY, an increase of 97 million CNY quarter-on-quarter, with a financial expense ratio of 0.14%, up 9.01 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The sales volume of the main pesticide raw materials increased by 33.75% year-on-year and 30.76% quarter-on-quarter to 23,400 tons in Q3, while the price was 28,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 5.86% year-on-year and 1.15% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - New pesticide products are expected to be launched in Q4 2024, with projected annual contributions of 1.064 billion CNY in revenue from the new products [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 797 million CNY, 1.10 billion CNY, and 1.32 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 9, and 7 times [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.87 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.3%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 5.20 billion CNY, a further decline of 11.4%, followed by increases of 19.1% and 15.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.44 billion CNY in 2023, decreasing to 797 million CNY in 2024, with subsequent increases to 1.10 billion CNY and 1.32 billion CNY in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.58 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.88 CNY in 2024, and then recovering to 1.21 CNY and 1.45 CNY in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3].