CHALCO(601600) 国海证券·2024-10-30 22:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by a significant increase in costs, with Q3 operating costs rising by 5.54 billion yuan [3] - Despite the cost increase, the company's alumina and primary aluminum production and sales have improved, with alumina production increasing by 0.88% YoY and primary aluminum production increasing by 14% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company's Q4 performance is expected to improve due to a rebound in aluminum and alumina prices, with aluminum prices increasing by 1,174 yuan/ton and alumina prices increasing by 615 yuan/ton compared to Q3 [3] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 173.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.76% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 68.46% YoY to 9.02 billion yuan [3] - Q3 revenue was 63.06 billion yuan, up 16.04% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 58.21% QoQ to 2.0 billion yuan [3] Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2024, metallurgical alumina production was 4.37 million tons, up 10.63% QoQ, while primary aluminum production was 1.99 million tons, up 7.57% QoQ [3] - The company's coal production in Q3 was 3.36 million tons, down 4.00% QoQ, and power generation for external sales was 11.9 billion kWh, down 2.5% YoY [3] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 143.26 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 109.58 billion yuan [3] - The average daily trading volume in the past month was 1.42 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.07% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to be 225.6 billion yuan in 2024, 236.9 billion yuan in 2025, and 245.4 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 13.12 billion yuan in 2024, 14.72 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.75 billion yuan in 2026, with EPS of 0.76 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 0.92 yuan respectively [6] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 10.92x in 2024, 9.73x in 2025, and 9.09x in 2026 [6] Industry Position - The company is a leading player in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry, with significant advantages in integrated industrial chains [6] - Future growth is expected from new projects in electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and new energy sectors [6]