PAIKE(605123) 民生证券·2024-10-30 22:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.482 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 11.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 247 million yuan, down 41.7% year-over-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 837 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 2.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.6% year-over-year [2] - The company is focusing on global expansion and has adjusted its fundraising project to enhance its production capacity for large special alloy forgings, which is expected to benefit from high demand in aerospace and renewable energy sectors [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross margin decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 20.6%, and the net profit margin fell by 5.2 percentage points to 10.0% [2] - The company’s operating cash flow turned positive at 401 million yuan, compared to a negative 70 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024 is 3.483 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 23.5% year-over-year [3][6] Project and Strategic Developments - The company has signed long-term cooperation agreements with international engine companies, leading to rapid growth in overseas revenue from 63 million yuan in 2020 to 490 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 98.4% [2] - The adjusted fundraising project aims to establish a production line for high-end special alloy forgings, targeting an annual production capacity of 27,500 tons for high-end equipment [2] Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 18x, 13x, and 11x respectively, with corresponding net profits of 376 million yuan, 534 million yuan, and 654 million yuan [3][6]