CIMC(000039) 民生证券·2024-10-30 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for CIMC (000039 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - CIMC's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in container and offshore engineering businesses [1] - The company's container manufacturing business saw a 421 78% YoY increase in dry container sales and a 16 60% YoY increase in refrigerated container sales in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - Offshore engineering business revenue grew 77 75% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, with new orders increasing 121% YoY to $3 25 billion [1] - The report forecasts CIMC's net profit attributable to parent company to reach RMB 2 598 billion in 2024, RMB 3 831 billion in 2025, and RMB 4 419 billion in 2026 [1] Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, CIMC achieved revenue of RMB 128 971 billion, a 35 58% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 1 828 billion, a 268 87% YoY increase [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 49 856 billion, a 44 30% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 962 million, a 891 78% YoY increase [1] - Gross margin was 11 84% in Q1-Q3 2024, down 1 86 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 2 11%, up 0 58 percentage points YoY [1] Industry Outlook - Global container trade volume growth is expected to increase from 0 7% in 2023 to 5 2% in 2024, with further growth of 2 8% expected in 2025 [1] - The offshore drilling platform market remains strong due to limited supply growth and steady demand increase [1] - International oil prices remain high due to regional conflicts and slower global energy transition, benefiting the offshore engineering market [1] Valuation - The report forecasts CIMC's PE ratio to be 18X in 2024, 12X in 2025, and 11X in 2026 [1] - EPS is expected to be RMB 0 48 in 2024, RMB 0 71 in 2025, and RMB 0 82 in 2026 [2] - PB ratio is forecasted at 0 9X in 2024, 0 8X in 2025, and 0 8X in 2026 [2]