石化周报 地缘僵持，OPEC+增产，油价维持震荡 2025 年 05 月 24 日 ➢ 以伊局势僵持，俄乌进展或得到推进。地缘政治方面，5 月 21 日，美国情 报表明以色列正在准备袭击伊朗的核设施；同日，美国再度表示，俄方将在数天 内提出俄乌停火大纲，这导致油价先扬后抑。目前，中东局势仍在僵持，以色列 方面回复表态"伊朗仍然是一个威胁。我们希望达成一项协议，阻止伊朗拥有核 武器及进行铀浓缩"，以伊冲突和美伊谈判进展需持续关注；俄乌冲突则有进一 步发展，5 月 23 日，乌克兰消息称，俄罗斯和乌克兰在三年多来的首次直接会 谈中达成协议，于周五开始一项重大的战俘交换，同时，俄罗斯外长表示，促使 乌克兰实现停火的备忘录的相关工作已进入关键阶段，一旦囚犯交换完成，俄罗 斯将准备向乌克兰提交一份概述实现长期和平的条件的草案文件。此外，5 月 23 日，特朗普提议从 6 月 1 日起对欧盟直接征收 50%的关税，国际贸易局势仍未 进入稳定阶段，或对全球的石油需求产生潜在影响。 ➢ OPEC+考虑进一步加大增产，或导致油价难以向上突破。供需层面，影响后 半周油价下滑的核心因素仍然是 OPEC+可能快速释放的供给，OPEC ...

石化周报 地缘僵持，OPEC+增产，油价维持震荡 2025 年 05 月 24 日 ➢ 以伊局势僵持，俄乌进展或得到推进。地缘政治方面，5 月 21 日，美国情 报表明以色列正在准备袭击伊朗的核设施；同日，美国再度表示，俄方将在数天 内提出俄乌停火大纲，这导致油价先扬后抑。目前，中东局势仍在僵持，以色列 方面回复表态"伊朗仍然是一个威胁。我们希望达成一项协议，阻止伊朗拥有核 武器及进行铀浓缩"，以伊冲突和美伊谈判进展需持续关注；俄乌冲突则有进一 步发展，5 月 23 日，乌克兰消息称，俄罗斯和乌克兰在三年多来的首次直接会 谈中达成协议，于周五开始一项重大的战俘交换，同时，俄罗斯外长表示，促使 乌克兰实现停火的备忘录的相关工作已进入关键阶段，一旦囚犯交换完成，俄罗 斯将准备向乌克兰提交一份概述实现长期和平的条件的草案文件。此外，5 月 23 日，特朗普提议从 6 月 1 日起对欧盟直接征收 50%的关税，国际贸易局势仍未 进入稳定阶段，或对全球的石油需求产生潜在影响。 ➢ OPEC+考虑进一步加大增产，或导致油价难以向上突破。供需层面，影响后 半周油价下滑的核心因素仍然是 OPEC+可能快速释放的供给，OPEC ...

煤炭周报 煤价企稳，旺季来临看好反弹行情 2025 年 05 月 24 日 ➢ 煤价企稳，旺季来临看好反弹行情。伴随低煤价下供给缩量以及电煤旺季来 临，本周煤价自 3 月初以来首次企稳。基本面来看，低煤价对供给的负反馈作用 已传导至国内产量和进口，2025 年 4 月全国原煤产量同比增速收窄 5.8pct 至 3.8%，日均产量环比下降 8.7%，其中边际产能省份新疆、内蒙日均产量分别环 比大幅下降 21.2%和 17.9%，4 月我国煤炭进口量同比减少 743 万吨，其中印 尼进口量同环比分别减少 354、367 万吨，持续跌价压力倒逼高成本煤矿减产， 进口煤丧失价格优势，从而对煤价底部形成支撑。同时伴随气温转热，电煤迎峰 度夏需求已逐步开启，非电化工耗煤需求仍高位运行，近期电厂日耗同环比提升， 可用天数同环比下降，终端库存相对较低情况下，需求的边际改善有望加速港口 去库进程，促成煤价新一轮反弹行情。板块来看，经历前期的恐慌性抛售，煤炭 股筹码低位出清，煤价底部支撑再度被验证后，稳定高股息确定性价值再度提升， 板块有望迎来估值提升行情。短期仍推荐稳健龙头标的，煤价进入上行通道后高 现货标的弹性更为充足。 ➢ ...

煤炭周报 煤价企稳，旺季来临看好反弹行情 2025 年 05 月 24 日 ➢ 煤价企稳，旺季来临看好反弹行情。伴随低煤价下供给缩量以及电煤旺季来 临，本周煤价自 3 月初以来首次企稳。基本面来看，低煤价对供给的负反馈作用 已传导至国内产量和进口，2025 年 4 月全国原煤产量同比增速收窄 5.8pct 至 3.8%，日均产量环比下降 8.7%，其中边际产能省份新疆、内蒙日均产量分别环 比大幅下降 21.2%和 17.9%，4 月我国煤炭进口量同比减少 743 万吨，其中印 尼进口量同环比分别减少 354、367 万吨，持续跌价压力倒逼高成本煤矿减产， 进口煤丧失价格优势，从而对煤价底部形成支撑。同时伴随气温转热，电煤迎峰 度夏需求已逐步开启，非电化工耗煤需求仍高位运行，近期电厂日耗同环比提升， 可用天数同环比下降，终端库存相对较低情况下，需求的边际改善有望加速港口 去库进程，促成煤价新一轮反弹行情。板块来看，经历前期的恐慌性抛售，煤炭 股筹码低位出清，煤价底部支撑再度被验证后，稳定高股息确定性价值再度提升， 板块有望迎来估值提升行情。短期仍推荐稳健龙头标的，煤价进入上行通道后高 现货标的弹性更为充足。 ➢ ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider, leveraging its electricity sales business as a foundation while focusing on energy-saving initiatives in the distribution network as a key to transformation [3][11]. - The electricity consumption demand is steadily increasing, with a significant rise in electricity sales volume contributing to performance growth [2][46]. - The company is backed by the State Grid Corporation, actively expanding its energy-saving business in the distribution network, which is expected to benefit from the growth of comprehensive energy services [3][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Business Model - The company primarily engages in electricity supply and sales, power dispatch, and energy-saving services, with a well-established supply network mainly in the Fuling District of Chongqing [11][12]. - The energy-saving business includes energy efficiency management systems and key equipment upgrades, currently covering 20 provinces and regions nationwide [11]. 2. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue and net profit CAGR are projected at 4.09% and 6.46%, respectively [17]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.117 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.46%, and a net profit of 514 million yuan, down 2.07% [17][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 709 million yuan, down 4.09%, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 16.29% [17]. 3. Electricity Sales and Energy-Saving Business - The total electricity sales volume in 2024 reached 346,384 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.71%, with a stable average selling price [2][38]. - The direct sales volume accounted for 94.94% of total sales, reflecting a growing competitive advantage in the end-user electricity market [38][46]. - The energy-saving business is crucial for the company's transformation, with a focus on reducing losses and improving efficiency in the distribution network [48][54]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 524 million, 555 million, and 603 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 5.8%, and 8.8%, respectively [3][5]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 28x, 27x, and 25x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [3][71].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider, leveraging its electricity sales business as a foundation while focusing on the critical transformation of its energy-saving business [3][11]. - The electricity consumption demand is steadily increasing, with a significant rise in electricity sales volume contributing to performance growth [2][46]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution network energy-saving business, which is expected to benefit from the growth of the State Grid's comprehensive energy services [3][54]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Business Overview - The company primarily engages in electricity supply and sales, power dispatch, and energy-saving services, with a well-established supply network mainly in the Fuling District of Chongqing [11][12]. - The energy-saving business has expanded to cover 20 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions across China [11]. 2. Financial Analysis - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to grow at CAGRs of 4.09% and 6.46%, respectively [17]. - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.117 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 514 million yuan, down 2.07% year-on-year [17]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 709 million yuan, a decline of 4.09% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 16.29% to 90 million yuan [17]. 3. Electricity Sales and Energy-Saving Business - The total electricity sales volume in 2024 reached 346,384 million kWh, an increase of 7.71% year-on-year, with a stable average selling price of 643.65 yuan per MWh [2][38]. - The direct sales volume accounted for 94.94% of total sales, reflecting a growth of 8.05% year-on-year, while the bulk sales volume decreased by 5.68% [2][38]. - The energy-saving business is crucial for the company's transformation, with new contracts expected to drive additional revenue [48][54]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 524 million, 555 million, and 603 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 5.8%, and 8.8%, respectively [3][67]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 28x, 27x, and 25x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [3][71].

医药行业专题报告 痛风市场潜力庞大，国产 URAT1 抑制剂百花齐放 2025 年 05 月 23 日 ➢ 痛风及高尿酸血症患者规模上亿，现有药物销售额接近 10 亿元，但副作用 较多，提示存在较大的未满足的临床需求。痛风患病率正持续上升，年轻化趋势 明显，我国成人居民高尿酸血症患病率为 14%，痛风患病率为 0.86%～2.20%， 初步估算我国痛风患者约为 1023~2618 万人，高尿酸血症患者约为 1.67 亿人， 患者人群庞大。当前痛风治疗主要依赖别嘌醇、非布司他、苯溴马隆等老一代降 尿酸药物，该类药物在 2020-2024 年销售量不断增长，2024 年的在国内样本医 院的销售规模已接近 10 亿元。然而现有药物存在超敏反应、心血管风险、肝肾 毒性等副作用，市场对更高效、更安全的新型降尿酸药物需求日益凸显。 ➢ URAT1 竞争格局良好：全球仅多替诺雷获批，III 期数据表现优异。URAT1 抑制剂作为新一代靶向促尿酸排泄药物，机制明确、疗效突出、安全性良好，具 备较高的临床潜力，成为新药研发热点。目前全球针对 URAT1 靶点的新一代药 物仅 Eisai 的多替诺雷先后在日本、泰国和中国获批上市 ...

京北方（002987.SZ）深度报告 金融 AI 新范式下的破局者 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ 国内领先的数智技术和金融科技服务商，深耕金融机构客户，迈向 AI+金融 的新时代。京北方围绕软件及 IT 解决方案和业务数字化运营两大主营业务，构 建了涵盖人工智能及大数据创新产品、金融科技解决方案、软件开发及服务、业 务数字化运营的完整业务体系；公司的主要客户结构相对稳定，覆盖银行、保险、 券商等十五类持牌金融机构。公司 2024 年实现营收 46.36 亿元，同比增长 9.29%，公司营收在 2017-2024 年维持稳健增长，复合增速达到 24%，同时公 司近年来维持 23%/8%左右的毛利率/净利率与 15%左右的期间费用率水平。 ➢ AI+人民币国际化+客户跃迁的三维聚变催化金融行业迈入新阶段。 AI+金融的裂变：金融机构加速部署 DeepSeek，低成本高性能 AI 模型显著降 低 AI+金融深度融合的门槛，AI 从效率工具迈向效能引擎，驱动智能风控、智能 运营、智能获客等不同业务板块的流程再造和效能增长。 人民币国际化进程加速：CIPS 和货币桥为代表的新兴跨境支付体系缩短了跨境 支付链路， ...

➢ 风险提示：产品研发安全性及有效性数据不及预期风险，产品研发进度不及 预期风险，监管政策变化风险，市场竞争加剧风险，产品产能不及预期风险，仿 制药风险，集采风险。 医药行业专题报告 痛风市场潜力庞大，国产 URAT1 抑制剂百花齐放 2025 年 05 月 23 日 ➢ 痛风及高尿酸血症患者规模上亿，现有药物销售额接近 10 亿元，但副作用 较多，提示存在较大的未满足的临床需求。痛风患病率正持续上升，年轻化趋势 明显，我国成人居民高尿酸血症患病率为 14%，痛风患病率为 0.86%～2.20%， 初步估算我国痛风患者约为 1023~2618 万人，高尿酸血症患者约为 1.67 亿人， 患者人群庞大。当前痛风治疗主要依赖别嘌醇、非布司他、苯溴马隆等老一代降 尿酸药物，该类药物在 2020-2024 年销售量不断增长，2024 年的在国内样本医 院的销售规模已接近 10 亿元。然而现有药物存在超敏反应、心血管风险、肝肾 毒性等副作用，市场对更高效、更安全的新型降尿酸药物需求日益凸显。 ➢ URAT1 竞争格局良好：全球仅多替诺雷获批，III 期数据表现优异。URAT1 抑制剂作为新一代靶向促尿酸排泄药物，机制明 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of -4.3 billion RMB, a decrease in losses by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 10.5%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with new vehicle launches, which will enhance its competitive position and stimulate sales growth [7][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 158.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% [4]. - The automotive business revenue was 143.7 billion RMB, up 159.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased delivery volumes [4]. - The overall gross profit for Q1 2025 was 24.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [4]. Cost and Expenses - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 19.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 19.5 billion RMB, up 40.2% year-on-year, mainly due to increased commissions from franchise stores [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [5]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 945.8 billion RMB, 1,476.3 billion RMB, and 1,700.8 billion RMB, respectively [8][9]. Financial Metrics - The report forecasts a net profit for 2026 of 4.6 billion RMB, with an EPS of 2.44 RMB [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/S ratio of 1.4 in 2025, decreasing to 0.8 by 2027 [9].