PAIKE(605123) 国盛证券·2024-10-31 00:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance due to fluctuations in downstream demand, with a projected recovery in the aerospace sector expected to stabilize growth [2][3]. - The company has increased its inventory and prepayments, indicating preparation for future demand growth [2]. - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore is anticipated to enhance international business development [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 247 million yuan, down 41.65% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.61%, a decrease of 4.88 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 9.95%, down 5.20 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was 837 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.81% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.57% [1]. Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 363 million yuan, 473 million yuan, and 594 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19X, 15X, and 12X [3][4]. - Revenue growth rates are expected to be -8.1% in 2024, followed by 15.7% in 2025 and 12.8% in 2026 [4][12]. Industry Position - The company is positioned as a core supplier of aerospace ring forgings in China, with potential for stable growth if demand in the aerospace sector recovers [3]. - The company is involved in various sectors, including aerospace, where it supplies components for multiple aircraft engine models, and the space industry, contributing to the Long March series rockets and missile systems [2].