上峰水泥：水泥主业涨价驱动底部向上，两翼战略持续推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.46 CNY, indicating an expected upside of over 20% from the current price of 8.62 CNY [4][6][17]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows a significant increase in net profit, achieving 2.34 million CNY, a year-on-year growth of 38.09%. However, the revenue for the first three quarters decreased by 21.77% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is pursuing a "one main, two wings" strategy, focusing on its core cement business while expanding into aggregate logistics and new economic investments. This strategy is expected to enhance internal synergies and improve future performance [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company reported a revenue of 381.5 million CNY and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 40.4 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.77% and 42.27%, respectively. The adjusted net profit was 36.6 million CNY, down 35.33% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of cement and clinker has seen a decline of 14.5% and 22.8% year-on-year, respectively, but there are signs of price increases in Q3, with expectations for further price hikes in Q4 and 2024 [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 26.71%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross margin improved to 28.88%, up 4.93 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio as of Q3 was 46.72%, a decrease of 3.17 percentage points year-on-year, indicating an improvement in capital structure [3]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding its aggregate business, which saw a 39.7% decline in sales volume to 6.32 million tons in the first three quarters. The environmental disposal business also faced a revenue drop of 35.8% [2]. - The renewable energy segment has made progress, with operational solar projects generating 13.54 million kWh of green electricity, and further solar projects are planned [2]. - The company’s investments in new economic sectors are expected to provide a buffer against the cyclical nature of its core cement business, with several projects in the pipeline for public listing [2][4].