Tianrun Industry(002283) 西南证券·2024-10-31 00:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianrun Industrial (002283) with a target price of 5.88 CNY over the next six months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to weak demand in the commercial vehicle market, leading to a decline in revenue and profit [2]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is actively expanding into new growth areas, including overseas markets and hybrid vehicle production [2]. - The company is accelerating the development of new products to cultivate future growth points, including air suspension products and electric steering systems [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 8.7 billion CNY, down 4.8% year-on-year and 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.8 billion CNY, down 16.4% year-on-year and 12.0% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.7%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 9.4%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenues of 40.06 billion CNY, 39.98 billion CNY, 46.47 billion CNY, and 55.73 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of -0.20%, +16.21%, and +19.93% [4][10]. - The forecasted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.33 CNY, 0.42 CNY, and 0.53 CNY, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 15, 11, and 9 [3][4]. Market Opportunities - The company is investing in a factory in Thailand with a planned investment of no more than 124 million CNY, aiming to relocate domestic production lines to meet growing capacity needs [2]. - The demand for plug-in hybrid vehicles is expected to grow, with sales in the first nine months of 2024 reaching 3.328 million units, up 84.2% year-on-year [2]. Product Development - The company has completed 12 project approvals and 44 new product trials in the first half of 2024, with plans to launch production lines for passenger vehicle air springs and other components in the second half of 2024 [2].