GREAT RIVER SMARTER(SZ:002930)2024-10-31 00:34Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics [1][3] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profitability in 3Q24, with total revenue of Rmb1,088 million, down 6.29% year-on-year, and net profit of Rmb171 million, down 28.81% year-on-year [6][7] - The report highlights the short-term pressure on domestic petrochemical logistics demand, with the petrochemical industry facing a situation of "increased production and sales without increased profits" [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for the petrochemical storage and logistics market remains supported by significant storage and transportation demand [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 3Q24, the company reported revenue of Rmb351 million, a decrease of 9.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of Rmb39 million, down 52.14% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross profit margin for 3Q24 was 48.53%, down 11.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.15%, down 10.57 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company forecasts revenue for FY24-26E to be Rmb1,629 million, Rmb1,902 million, and Rmb2,209 million, respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb228 million, Rmb319 million, and Rmb420 million [7] Growth Drivers - Future growth points include improved occupancy rates from new acquisitions and ongoing projects, as well as the extension of the chemical logistics supply chain [3] - The company is expected to continue its strategy of organic and inorganic growth to expand capacity [7] Valuation - The target price is set at Rmb13.85 per share based on a 20x FY25E PE ratio, reflecting a potential upside of 45% from the current price [3][7]