ZPEC(603619) Xinda Securities·2024-10-31 00:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that in Q3 2024, Zhongman Petroleum achieved a revenue of 3.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 668 million yuan, up 13% year-on-year. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items decreased by 6% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the exploration and development segment as well as the equipment manufacturing segment [1]. - The company’s oil production saw rapid growth, with Q3 2024 oil output reaching 223,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.23% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.051 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 668 million yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year. The net profit after non-recurring items was 633 million yuan, down 6% year-on-year [1]. - The operating cash flow for the period was 872 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 1.67 yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 49.1%, up 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin was 21.6%, down 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to increased management, financial, and tax expenses [1]. Production and Development Highlights - The company’s oil production for Q3 2024 was 223,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 24.23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.63%. The production from the Wensu area was 170,000 tons, up 9.18% year-on-year [1]. - The Kange oil field production reached 53,000 tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 122.69% [1]. - The company has entered a rapid capacity expansion phase for the Kange project, with total oil production for the first three quarters of 2024 amounting to 628,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.08% [1]. Future Outlook and Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for Zhongman Petroleum to be 951 million yuan in 2024, 1.028 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.239 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.5%, 8.0%, and 20.5% respectively [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.06 yuan in 2024, 2.22 yuan in 2025, and 2.68 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.86, 9.13, and 7.57 [1].