CHALCO(601600) 民生证券·2024-10-31 00:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 7.69 yuan [4]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 9.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.46%, while the net profit for Q3 2024 was 2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.34% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 58.21% [2]. - The production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina saw significant growth in Q3 2024, with electrolytic aluminum production at 1.99 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 140,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 120,000 tons [2]. - The report highlights the company's integrated supply chain advantages, with alumina self-sufficiency at 100% and bauxite self-sufficiency at approximately 60%, which enhances cost advantages as alumina prices rise [2]. - The report suggests that the value of bauxite resources is expected to be reassessed due to rising prices and geopolitical factors, positioning the company favorably as a leader in the bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum sectors [2]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 225.071 billion yuan, with a net profit of 12.584 billion yuan, and an expected growth rate of 60.23% for net profit in 2024 [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 11.631 billion yuan, 13.824 billion yuan, and 15.508 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [2][5]. - The company's debt ratio decreased to 48.7% in Q3 2024, down 4.6 percentage points from the end of 2023, indicating improved financial stability [2].