Zijin Mining(601899) 华源证券·2024-10-31 00:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 230.396 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.357 billion yuan, up 50.68% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its gold mining operations, with a significant acquisition of a gold mine in Ghana for 1 billion USD, expected to yield an average annual gold production of approximately 5.8 tons [4] - The company aims to accelerate its expansion plan, targeting to achieve its main economic indicators by 2028, two years ahead of the original 2030 timeline [4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue reached 79.980 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.74% [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.273 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.09% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 15.81%, with a projected increase to 19.81% in 2024E [6] Production and Cost Metrics - Q3 2024 production volumes included gold at 17.34 tons (down 1.50% QoQ), silver at 117 tons (up 5.90% QoQ), copper at 205.8 thousand tons (up 2.46% QoQ), and zinc at 110.9 thousand tons (up 4.27% QoQ) [1] - The production costs for Q3 2024 were gold at 233 yuan/gram (up 1.18% QoQ), silver at 1.81 yuan/gram (down 1.63% QoQ), copper at 22,900 yuan/ton (up 2.06% QoQ), and zinc at 790 yuan/ton (down 13.54% QoQ) [1] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been raised to 33.2 billion, 40.4 billion, and 44.9 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 57.06%, 21.95%, and 10.99% [5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 14X, 11X, and 10X respectively [5]