海尔智家24Q3业绩点评：数字化提效成果显著，费用持续优化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5] - The target price is raised to 36.54 CNY, up from the previous 33.25 CNY [5][14] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a significant improvement in revenue anticipated for Q4 [2][17] - The integration of the logistics company,日日顺, is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [3][21][24] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 2.03, 2.28, and 2.51 CNY respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%, 12%, and 10% [3][14] - The company is positioned as a leader in the home appliance industry, justifying a 18X PE for 2024 [3][14] 2. Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 202.97 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.17%, and a net profit of 15.15 billion CNY, up 15.25% [17] - Q3 2024 revenue was 67.35 billion CNY, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.47% and a net profit of 4.73 billion CNY, up 13.15% [17] 3. Revenue Insights - Domestic sales experienced a slight decline, while overseas demand remained stable, with expectations for Q4 to show improvement [18][20] - The company anticipates a boost in domestic sales due to government incentives for replacing old appliances [18][20] 4. Profitability Analysis - Digital transformation initiatives have led to improved efficiency and cost control, with Q3 2024 gross margin at 31.32% and net margin at 7.17% [20] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [20][21] 5. Cash Flow Performance - The company reported a total cash and cash equivalents of 48.18 billion CNY, with a net cash decrease compared to the previous half [22] - Operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2024 was 13.88 billion CNY, a 5.1% increase year-on-year [22] 6. Strategic Developments - The merger with日日顺 is aimed at strengthening the company's logistics capabilities and enhancing customer service [24]