Tsingtao Brewery(600600) 海通证券·2024-10-31 00:51Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 5.3% YoY, with beer sales volume and average price down by 5.1% and 0.2% respectively, due to weak domestic beer market recovery [4] - Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points to 42.1% in Q3 2024, driven by a 2.2% YoY decrease in beer unit costs [5] - Sales expenses increased significantly, leading to a 0.6 percentage point decline in net profit margin to 15.2% in Q3 2024 [5] - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 at 3.16, 3.48, and 3.78 yuan per share, respectively, with a target price range of 63.15-78.94 yuan based on 20-25x 2024 PE [5] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue was 28.959 billion yuan, down 6.5% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.7% to 4.990 billion yuan [4] - Q3 2024 revenue was 8.891 billion yuan, down 5.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 9.0% to 1.348 billion yuan [4] - The company's total beer sales volume in Q3 2024 was 2.155 million kiloliters, with the main brand Qingdao Beer and other brands down 4.1% and 6.3% respectively [4] - Sales of mid-to-high-end products decreased by 4.7% to 883,000 kiloliters in Q3 2024 [4] Valuation and Comparison - The company's 2024E PE ratio is 21.70x, compared to an industry average of 21.37x [7] - The company's 2024E PB ratio is 3.19x, higher than the industry average of 3.97x [7] - The company's 2024E PS ratio is 2.92x, lower than the industry average of 3.83x [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to decline by 5.7% in 2024E, then grow by 2.3% and 3.1% in 2025E and 2026E respectively [6] - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 0.9%, 10.2%, and 8.8% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [6] - Gross margin is projected to increase from 38.7% in 2023 to 42.5% in 2026E [6] - ROE is expected to remain stable around 15% from 2023 to 2026E [6] Market Performance - The stock price closed at 68.51 yuan on October 29, with a 52-week range of 53.20-88.02 yuan [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 93.461 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 93.454 billion yuan [1] - The stock's absolute returns were -3.8%, 18.3%, and 3.6% over the past 1M, 2M, and 3M respectively [3]