青岛啤酒：2024年三季报点评：短期承压，静待beta修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) with a current price of 68.51 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 289.59 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 49.90 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 1.67% [2]. - The current drinking demand remains weak, impacting revenue in the short term, with Q3 revenue down by 5.28% and sales volume at 2.155 million kiloliters, a decrease of 5.11% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to reduce losses in Q4 due to a low base and low inventory, with a projected stabilization in sales [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenues of 289.59 billion CNY, with a net profit of 49.90 billion CNY and a non-recurring net profit of 46.86 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year change of -6.52%, +1.67%, and +1.96% respectively [2]. - In Q3 alone, revenues were 88.91 billion CNY, with a net profit of 13.48 billion CNY, and a non-recurring net profit of 12.60 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year change of 5.28%, -9.03%, and -7.94% respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - The company is facing short-term pressure due to slow recovery in the current drinking channel, with a significant impact on product structure upgrades [3]. - The Q3 average price per ton was 4,126 CNY, a slight decrease of 0.18% year-on-year, indicating pricing pressure in the market [3]. Cost and Profitability - The Q3 gross profit margin increased by 1.19 percentage points to 42.12%, despite a rise in sales expense ratio due to increased marketing efforts [3]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in sales and profitability in Q4, with expectations of reduced losses compared to the previous year [3]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the long-term growth potential remains significant, driven by structural improvements in the beer industry and the company's ability to upgrade its product offerings [3]. - The projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 319.47 billion CNY, 335.76 billion CNY, and 350.87 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 44.12 billion CNY, 49.07 billion CNY, and 53.15 billion CNY [4][6].