铁合金月报（2024.09）：旺季尾声需求边际走弱，关注后续政策出台

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Follow the Market" rating for the industry, indicating a relative performance to the broader market over the next year [9]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for manganese silicon is weakening as the peak season ends, with a focus on upcoming policy changes [6]. - It notes that while the steel price is expected to rise in October, the overall demand for iron alloys is decreasing, and steel mills are maintaining essential procurement of raw materials [6][7]. Summary by Sections Manganese Silicon - Import: In September, manganese ore imports were 2.73 million tons, up 4.56% month-on-month but down 10.29% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from January to September, imports totaled 21.66 million tons, down 7.3% year-on-year [2]. - Production: Manganese silicon production in September was 756,100 tons, down 10.73% month-on-month and down 27.06% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to September was 7.64 million tons, down 10.68% year-on-year [2]. - Import and Export: In September, manganese silicon imports were 5,444 tons, up 349.16% month-on-month and up 215.89% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to September were 22,500 tons, up 166.58% year-on-year. Exports in September were 5,002 tons, up 173.01% month-on-month but down 0.69% year-on-year [2]. Silicon Iron - Production: In September, silicon iron production was 461,000 tons, up 0.28% month-on-month and up 0.17% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to September was 4.07 million tons, up 0.3% year-on-year [3]. - Import and Export: In September, silicon iron imports were 9,100 tons, up 13.09% month-on-month and up 130.85% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to September were 40,600 tons, up 2.78% year-on-year. Exports in September were 3.78 tons, down 9.23% month-on-month but up 32.53% year-on-year [3]. Vanadium Iron - Production: In September, the production of vanadium pentoxide was 11,429 tons, down 0.27% month-on-month but up 10.81% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to September was 95,800 tons, up 2.37% year-on-year. Vanadium iron production in September was 3,200 tons, down 4.9% month-on-month and down 1.84% year-on-year, with cumulative production from January to September at 29,100 tons, up 12.05% year-on-year [4]. Steel - Production: In September, crude steel production was 77.07 million tons, down 850,000 tons (-1.1%) month-on-month and down 5.04 million tons (-6.1%) year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to September was 768.48 million tons, down 26.59 million tons (-3.6%) year-on-year [5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the fourth quarter may enter a phase of strong expectations but weak realities, advising to focus on specific companies in the silicon iron, vanadium iron, graphite electrode, tungsten, and molybdenum sectors [7][17].