NCI(SH:601336) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-31 01:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][9]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a 116.7% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 9.6 billion yuan [1]. - The company's total revenue for the first three quarters reached 51.37 billion yuan, reflecting a 72.9% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company has successfully optimized its channel transformation measures, leading to a 72.9% increase in insurance service revenue, totaling 106.96 billion yuan [1]. - The new business value growth rate reached 79.2%, driven by improved business quality and a reduction in the surrender rate to 1.3% [1]. - The company has implemented various reforms in its individual insurance channels, resulting in a 1.3% increase in premium income, with first-year premiums for long-term insurance growing by 18.8% [1]. - The company has diversified its product structure in its bancassurance business, achieving a positive growth rate in premium income, with long-term insurance first-year premiums increasing by 6.3% [1]. - The investment income has significantly improved, with an annualized total investment return of 6.8% and a comprehensive investment return of 8.1%, marking a 5.1 percentage point increase from the previous year [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 6.31, 7.26, and 8.07 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, up from previous estimates of 4.35, 5.36, and 5.99 yuan [1][2]. - The price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios are projected to be 0.54, 0.50, and 0.46 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7].