报喜鸟：2024Q3渠道拓展持续推进，利润表现承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [7]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue down 4% year-on-year to 3.54 billion yuan and net profit down 25% to 420 million yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on channel expansion, with expectations for improved performance in Q4 2024, particularly in its core brands [5][3]. - Despite short-term profit pressures, the company is projected to benefit from ongoing store expansion and optimization of its brand structure, leading to potential long-term growth [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 70 million yuan, down 52% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 62.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 5.6 percentage points to 7.5% [2]. - The company’s inventory turnover days increased by 28.6 days to 287.8 days, indicating slower inventory movement [4]. Brand Performance - The HAZZYS brand is estimated to have a revenue decline of 5% to 10% in Q3 2024, with expectations for improvement in Q4 due to better foot traffic [3]. - The main brand, Baoniao, is projected to see a revenue decline of around 10% in Q3 2024, with a focus on optimizing channel structure and store performance [4]. - The Baoniao business is expected to improve in Q4 2024, despite a significant revenue decline of approximately 30% in Q3 2024 [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a slight decline in revenue for the full year 2024, with net profit under pressure in the short term [5]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store network, with expectations of opening 10% to 20% more stores in 2024 while closing underperforming locations [3]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is estimated at 550 million yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times [5].