新宝股份：2024三季报点评：外销延续较优增长，盈利小幅承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.69 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 785 million, up 6.66% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 4.97 billion, a 12.88% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 343 million, a slight increase of 0.53% year-on-year [5]. - External sales continued to show strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20% in Q3, while internal sales faced pressure, declining by 15% in the same period. The report anticipates that external sales will continue to grow due to strong demand, while internal sales may improve due to policies encouraging upgrades [5][6]. - The company's gross margin decreased significantly, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin external sales and the impact of currency appreciation. Despite this, the report expects external sales to maintain growth momentum, and internal sales to benefit from upgrade policies [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the years 2024 to 2026, the company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 12%, 14%, and 14% respectively, with corresponding valuations of 11X, 10X, and 9X [2][5]. - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including expected revenues of 16.92 billion in 2024, 18.43 billion in 2025, and 20.03 billion in 2026, with net profits projected at 1.10 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.42 billion respectively [7][12].