美国大选前瞻：特朗普交易再度升温

Election Probability and Polling - As of October 28, Trump's probability of winning the election has risen to 65.0%, while Harris's probability has decreased to 34.9%[3] - Trump's support rate has significantly increased, surpassing Harris's, with Trump at 48.5% and Harris at 48.4% as of October 27[10] - In key swing states, Trump's winning probability is leading, with Arizona at 74.0%, Georgia at 73.0%, and Pennsylvania at 61.5%[15] Market Impact of Election Outcomes - If Trump is re-elected, it could lead to long-term benefits for the U.S. stock market, similar to the tax cuts in 2017, which supported corporate earnings[4] - The U.S. Treasury bond yields may not decline significantly due to potential inflation pressures from tariffs and immigration restrictions under Trump[4] - Trump's policies could strengthen the U.S. dollar, although he has also indicated a desire to devalue it to boost exports[4] Domestic Policy Implications - Trump's potential re-election may lead to increased tariffs, impacting domestic export chains, but the actual effect on China may be limited due to its reduced share in U.S. imports[5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies could necessitate stronger counter-cyclical measures in the domestic market[5] Historical Context and Asset Performance - Historical data since 1956 shows that U.S. stock markets generally perform well during election years, with an average return of 14.3% compared to 14% in non-election years[32] - The impact of congressional composition on stock market performance is minimal, with less than 0.5% difference in S&P 500 returns three months post-election[35]