美国大选前瞻与市场影响简析

Election Overview - The 2024 U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024, with the new president taking office on January 20, 2025[1] - Current Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is competing against former President Donald Trump, with market expectations favoring Trump's victory[1] Market Impact of Trump and Harris - Trump's policies are expected to boost demand for basic industrial commodities like copper, while negatively impacting gold due to a preference for economic sanctions over military action[2] - If Trump wins, basic metals and agricultural products may see short-term gains, while gold and oil prices could decline[5] Market Reactions Based on Election Outcomes - In the scenario of a Trump victory, basic metals and agricultural products are likely to rise, while gold and oil prices may fall[5] - If Harris wins, the opposite effects are anticipated, with potential for significant market volatility due to her lower winning probability[5] Summary of Potential Outcomes - Trump's full victory could lead to a rise in copper and agricultural products, while gold and oil would likely decline[5] - If Harris wins but the Republican Party retains control, or if Trump wins but the Democrats maintain influence, market trends may reverse from the current "Trump trade" dynamics[3]