十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期，市场表现引人瞩目，主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨，其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头，涨幅达到 6.7%，刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内，多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购，期限为三个 月，旨在维持市场流动性。此外，市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下，A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期，供应压力缓解有限，沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落，海外锌库存持续回 落，伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强，沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱， 但矿端供应仍偏宽松，国内锌供应压力仍较大，国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落，呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落，仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复，原生铅检修后逐步复产，整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般， 国内库存下降至低位，不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强，铅震荡偏弱。 ...

锡价暴涨能否持续？ 印尼矿端供应扰动加剧了全球锡供应短缺局面，国内外锡价暴涨。印尼总统 于 9 月 29 日下令关闭 1000 个非法锡矿，并计划打击全国 80%的非法开采活动。 作为全球最大锡出口国（占全球供应 25%以上）。印尼锡供应端扰动进一步给本 就供需紧平衡状态下的锡再添恐慌性预期，预计印尼非法矿关闭可能导致四季度 全球锡矿供应缺口扩大至 8000 吨以上。印尼 8 月份锡锭出口为 3246.46 吨，环 比下降 14.39%，连续三个月下降，已经处于四年来的低位水平，后期供应端扰 动下，锡锭出口或将继续大幅下降。 另外，宏观利好也在提振有色价格。美联储 10 月降息概率达 93%，美元走弱 叠加流动性宽松预期，提振有色板块整体情绪。 缅甸方面，锡矿复产进程推进缓慢，导致中国锡矿进口维持低位。8 月份， 我国从缅甸进口锡矿只有 2091 吨，同比下降 27.72%。仅占国内总进口量的 20%。 虽然缅甸佤邦锡矿已启动复产，但因雨季、设备短缺及炸药管控，实际矿端产出 维持低位，预计产出放量兑现要到 11 月份。 海外锡矿供应复苏缓慢，国内原料供应紧张矛盾难以解决，国内冶炼厂开工 率持续走低。截止上周末 ...

博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 市场情绪降温，盘面震荡回落 工业硅/多晶硅 20250929 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格坚挺运行。截至2025年9月26日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为9000元/吨，环比 上周上涨200元/吨。期货方面，本周主力合约震荡回落，截至9月26日主力合约收8960元/吨。 供应：新疆地区开工持稳，下周有少量复产，预计在10月初产量有所回升；西北地区开工率基本稳定；云南地区开工 率整体稳定，10月云南进入平水期，电价相较前期有所提升，关注国庆节后开工率变化情况；四川地区开工基本持平， 10月底结束丰水期，预计减产在10月下旬。整体而言，本周工业硅产量基本持稳。 需求：多晶硅开工率小幅增加，近期硅料企业硅粉订单需求集中释放，市场成交较好，10月硅料企业减产不及预期， 叠加部分产能爬坡，预计产量仍将维持高位，对工业硅需求支撑较强；有机硅周度开工小幅波动，对工业硅需求维持 稳定；铝合金企业开工率基本稳定，节前备货采购有所增加。出口方面，8月工业硅出口7.66万吨，环比增加3.51%， 同比增加18 ...

博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 铁水维持增势，盘面高位回落 铁矿石周报 20250929 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 交易逻辑：铁水维持增势，盘面高位回落 供应：外矿方面，9月22日-9月28日，全球铁矿石发运总量3475.4万吨，环比增加150.6万吨；澳洲发运量2028万吨，环比增加 109.28万吨；巴西发运量819.3万吨，环比减少17万吨；非主流发运量1257万吨，环比增加189.2万吨。中国45港到港总量 2360.5万吨，环比减少314.5万吨。内矿方面，截至9月26日，全国186家矿山铁精粉日均产量47.85万吨，环比降0.29万吨，产 能利用率61.27%，环比降0.38%；矿山精粉库存77.57万吨，环比增8.35万吨。 需求：9月26日当周，日均铁水产量242.36万吨，环比+1.34万吨。本期盈利率继续下滑，铁水产量小幅增加，同比维持高位， 节前补库基本结束，短期矿价支撑趋弱，但节后刚需补库仍存。 库存：本期进口矿库存小幅增加，在港船舶数量减少3艘至99艘。近期港口库存变化不大，整体库存相对稳定，节前钢厂集中补 库基本结束。 基差：01 ...

国庆长假有色金属基本面浅析 2025 年 9 月 29 日 张天骜 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：Z0012680 电话：025-52278450 邮箱：zhangtianao@ftol.com.cn 一、宏观基本面 1. 美国新一轮关税来袭： 当地时间 9 月 25 日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布， 自 10 月 1 日起，美国将对多类进口产品实施新一轮高额关税。措施包括：对厨 房橱柜、浴室洗手台及相关建材征收 50%关税，对进口家具征收 30%关税，对 专利及品牌药品加征 100%关税。特朗普当天还宣布，自 10 月 1 日起将对所有进 口重型卡车加征 25%关税。 美国关税政策再度加码，同时中美就 Tik Tok 问题达成一致，得到一个双方 可以接受，但并不算最优的解决方案。未来中美谈判可能不断拉锯，而全球贸易 仍然面临较大压力。 关税与贸易纠纷对有色金属形成不利影响。 2. 地缘政治风险较高 5. 国内货币政策保持稳定 虽然经过美国调停、美国/欧盟新一轮关税制裁等各种影响，但俄乌冲突目 前完全没有结束的迹象，反而愈演愈烈。中东地区矛盾激化， ...

芳烃市场周报： 旺季表现平淡，效益承压 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：近期成本端国际油价先跌后涨，地缘局势不稳定性对油价形成支撑。当前日本石脑油608美元/吨，PXCFR817美元/吨。中石化9月PX挂牌 价格7200元/吨，8月中石化PX结算价格7020元/吨。 • 供给：国内PX本周产量为73.32万吨，环比上周+1.86%。国内PX周均产能利用率87.42%，环比上周+1.59%。周内天津石化30万吨；福佳大化两 套140万吨装置延续检修，计划11月初重启，9月中旬大榭负荷提升到9成。短流程效益的持续修复进一步刺激PX工厂的生产积极性。 • 需求：下游PTA产能利用率至76.48%，环比-0.81%，同比-2.75%。周内福海创如期重启，然华南装置因天气等原因降负或停车。 • 总结与展望：主力2511自8月下旬快速回落后低位震荡，近期延续弱势。自二季度来看，6月伊以冲突加剧利多油价，PX跟随冲高，随后中旬美 宣布将全面停火消息，爆发石油危机可能较小，下游在成本端快速下跌驱动下跟随下行。7月中旬起受宏观商品气氛影响，在"反内卷"政策 下化工品普涨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, commodities generally declined, and Zhengzhou cotton started to follow the logic of increased production. As the time for a large amount of new cotton to be listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on cotton prices is gradually weakening. Coupled with the downstream peak season falling short of expectations, Zhengzhou cotton has significantly declined this week [4]. - Recently, the operating loads of spinning mills and fabric mills have remained stable, and the finished - product inventories have slightly decreased. However, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is not obvious, and the peak season is under - performing. Domestic cotton production is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. There is insufficient upward driving force for cotton prices, which may run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton. With holidays approaching and a large amount of seed cotton about to be listed, cautious operation is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Old - crop Commercial Inventory - As of mid - September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.176 million tons, a decrease of 306,000 tons compared to the end of August. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 460,000 tons, and the inventory in the inland was 430,000 tons. It is roughly estimated that by the end of September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory may drop to about 900,000 - 1 million tons, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. However, new cotton will be concentratedly listed in October, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory will start to accumulate. Even if the commercial inventory in September is low, it will not substantially affect the cotton use of textile enterprises. As the time for new cotton to be concentratedly listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on near - month cotton prices is gradually weakening [5]. 2. Downstream Operating Load and Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the operating load indexes of downstream spinning mills and fabric mills were 50.3 and 52.5 respectively, remaining basically stable since the middle and late ten - day period. Their finished - product inventories were 25.8 days and 29 days respectively, continuing to reduce inventory, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down compared to the previous period. Compared with the same period in previous years, the operating load index of spinning mills has risen slowly and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. The growth rate of the operating load index of fabric mills has slowed down month - on - month and is currently equivalent to that of last year. The inventory reduction speed of finished products is the same as that of last year, but the absolute position is at the highest level in the same period in the past three years [6]. 3. US Cotton Export Sales - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease month - on - month, a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. Among them, India signed 6,200 tons, and Turkey signed 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase month - on - month, a 6% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 6% increase year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam shipped 9,500 tons, India 4,800 tons, and China 1,600 tons. The weekly export signing volume has declined again, with the overall signing performance being poor, and the progress is 16% slower than the five - year average, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of the week ending September 18, China had signed a total of 17,000 tons of US cotton for this year [6]. 4. Price Indexes and Price Changes - **Cotton and Yarn Futures and Spot Prices**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Imported Cotton and Yarn Prices**: From September 18 to September 25, the prices of imported cotton and yarn decreased. For example, the price of Indian C32S imported yarn decreased from 21,330 yuan/ton to 21,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port delivery price index under the sliding - scale duty was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the price difference with the imported cotton port delivery price under the 1% tariff was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton [37]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of 250 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 1,675 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude increased by 105 yuan/ton week - on - week [39]. 5. Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 0 sheets [45].

铜周报—美联储降息刺激，铜价震荡偏强 当地时间 9 月 14 日，中美双方在西班牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。 美联储降息在即，市场情绪总体偏向乐观，周五美元小幅反弹，有色金属周五大 涨后夜盘多数回落。今日 8 月中国工业、投资、消费数据全面不及预期，失业率 小幅上升，关税影响逐步显现。今日人民币小幅上涨美元下跌，美联储降息临近， 市场情绪仍然偏强，有色金属探底回升多数上涨。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国际铜 上涨，国内现货铜下跌。 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 电话：025-52278450 邮箱：zhangtianao@ftol.com.cn 2025-9-15 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报 80940，现货报 81070，沪铜日内低开高走，现 货较期货升水 130 点。今日现货基差升水下降至 80 点，现货成交不佳。LME 现 货贴水本周小幅收窄至-73 美元，外盘现货需求一般。本周美铜库存继续大幅上 升，伦铜库存下降，沪铜库存上升，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率小幅上涨， 洋山铜溢价下降至 53.5 美元，国内现货需求一般。铜价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The steel prices are oscillating with differentiation among varieties. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, while the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production are on the rise. The production of rebar has decreased but remains at a high level, with demand continuing to fall and the peak - season expectations unfulfilled. The terminal demand is still weak, and the rebar inventory has increased, adding to the inventory pressure. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both increased, with production reaching a new high for the year, a significant increase in demand, and a slight reduction in inventory. Steel exports have decreased month - on - month but still show resilience. The market sentiment was boosted by macro factors on Friday, and the cost side still provides support. Industrial contradictions are accumulating, and attention should be paid to the changes in peak - season demand. In the short term, the steel market will operate in an oscillatory manner [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production - Molten iron production reached 2405500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 117100 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39%. The electric furnace operating rate was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29%, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% [5]. - As of September 12, the production of rebar decreased by 67500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, the long - process production decreased by 31100 tons week - on - week, and the short - process production decreased by 36400 tons week - on - week. The production of hot - rolled coils increased by 109000 tons week - on - week [35]. 3.2 Demand - Recently, high - frequency data showed that the apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coils increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1980700 tons (- 40000), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3261600 tons (+ 208000) [5]. - As of September 12, the weekly average of building material trading volume was 103000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6128.8 tons, with a slight increase in trading. The weekly average of hot - rolled coil trading volume was 34700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1043 tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 846000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12400 tons [44][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory was 6538600 tons (+ 138600), the social inventory was 4872300 tons (+ 185700), and the steel mill inventory was 1666300 tons (- 47100). The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3733200 tons (- 10200), the social inventory was 2924400 tons (- 19200), and the steel mill inventory was 808800 tons (+ 9000) [5]. - As of September 12, the billet inventory in Tangshan was 611000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14200 tons. The inventory of major steel products was 10953200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 179600 tons [53]. 3.4 Basis As of September 12, the basis of the rebar main contract was 93 yuan/ton (- 4), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 36 yuan/ton (- 4) [12]. 3.5 Raw Materials The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1401 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [15]. 3.6 Other Related Data - According to customs data, steel exports in August were 9.41 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330000 tons; from January to August, the cumulative steel export volume was 77.49 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [65]. - According to Steel Union data, automobile production in August was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 223900 vehicles. New energy vehicle production in July was 1.243 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 25000 vehicles [69]. - From January to August, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with a decline rate of 0.9%. Specifically, from January to August, the new construction area of houses was 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%, with a decline rate of 0.1%. The completed area of houses was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%, with a decline rate of 0.5%. From January to August, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, with a decline rate of 0.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, with a decline rate of 0.8%. From January to August, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises were 6.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%, with a decline rate of 0.5% [73].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, market sentiment turned weak, and copper prices returned to a volatile trend. The high inventory of US copper indicates insufficient medium - term demand, while the end of the off - season for Shanghai copper suggests that spot demand is expected to gradually improve. Technically, after the positive impact of the interest rate cut fades, the market sentiment declines, and copper prices may show a short - term volatile trend [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Price Movements - On September 14, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid. With the Fed's imminent interest rate cut, market sentiment was generally optimistic at first, but then declined. The US dollar rebounded slightly on Friday, and most non - ferrous metals fell in the night session after a sharp rise on Friday. After China's September LPR remained unchanged and no new policies were announced at the financial system press conference, market optimism declined. The RMB rose slightly and the US dollar fell slightly, causing non - ferrous metals to rise and then fall. Shanghai copper rose, London copper fell, international copper rose, and domestic spot copper rose [1] Price and Basis Data - Today, Shanghai copper closed at 80,160, and the spot price was 80,310. The spot was at a premium of 150 points over the futures. The spot basis premium dropped to 60 points, and spot trading improved. The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 65 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. The US copper inventory continued to rise significantly this week, the London copper inventory decreased, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased, with general spot demand. The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose to 59.5 US dollars, indicating improved domestic spot demand before the holiday. The London - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 8.01, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 119 points, with the external price ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1] Technical Analysis - Today, London copper fell slightly and traded around 9,980 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly after rising and then falling, closing at 80,160, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai copper increased slightly while the open interest decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2] Market Indicator Monitoring - From September 16th to 22nd, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1019 - 7.1191, the spot premium/discount (yuan/ton) ranged from 80 - 470, the Yangshan copper premium (US dollars/ton) increased from 53.5 to 59.5, the LME copper - futures - spot spread was between - 59 and - 71, and the main contract London - Shanghai ratio fluctuated between 7.97 - 8.09 [3]