弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 玉米震荡反弹，远月乐观 2026年1月9日 玉米主力2603合约延续反弹走势。现货价格偏稳，其中鲅鱼圈玉米平舱价在2310元/吨附近；蛇口港玉米到港价在 2450元/吨附近。玉米基差震荡走弱，盘面贴水收窄。 淀粉主力2603合约震荡反弹。淀粉价格稳定，潍坊金玉米淀粉价格在2800元/吨，基差震荡走弱。 （1）新粮销售区域分化，农户惜售。现货价格平稳，农户挺价惜售，售粮进度虽仍偏快，但节奏有所放缓。据钢 联：截至1月8日，全国售粮总进度为5%，同比快2%；其中东北地区为49%，同比快6%；华北地区为45%，同比慢2%；西北 地区为65%，同比慢1%。中储粮公开竞价与采购进行，进口拍卖补充，市场看涨情绪有所减弱。 （2）港口库存不一，下游企业继续增库。据钢联数据：截至1月2日，北港玉米库存为153.8万吨，环比回落，大幅 低于去年同期；周度下海量为59.3万吨，自高位回落。广东港内贸玉米库存为47.8万吨，环比持续回升；外贸玉米库存 为29.4万吨，环比回落。下游深加工、饲企库存续增；截至1月9日，深加工企业玉米库存为35 ...

供需两淡，沪铅震荡难改 基本面变化 加工费：2025年11月中国进口铅精矿11.0万吨实物量，同比上升15.8%，环比上升11.7%，进口量高于近年来均值水平。国内冬 季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位维持稳定。1月国内月度加工费200-400 元/吨，月度环比持平元；进口月度加工费位-160--130美元/干吨，月度环比持平。现货加工费方面，国内铅矿周度加工费为 250-350元/吨，周度环比持平；进口周度加工费为-160--130美元/干吨，周度环比持平。 供应：SMM显示11月全国电解铅产量小幅上升，环比增加0.49个百分点，较去年同期下降1.61个百分点；11月再生精铅产量环比 上升8.5%，同比去年增加10.13%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率67.3%，环比增长0.2%。铅精矿供应缺口仍在，但原生铅检 修后恢复，开工率维持高位。SMM再生铅四省周度开工率为37.6%，环比下滑7.8%。冬季雾霾天气多发，环保管控对再生铅炼厂 的产量存有潜在限制。废旧铅酸蓄电池报废量转淡，原料供应紧张局面难以缓解。节后废电瓶价格小幅上涨，再生铅企业利润 空间收窄，叠加 ...

原木周报： 冬储备货，需求表现分化 20260107 弘业金融研究院 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 姜周曦琳 从业资格号：F03114700 投资咨询号：Z0022394 原木产业数据 ➢ 期现货： • 现货端，日照港3.9米中A辐射松原木740元/方，较上期持稳；本周太仓港4米中A辐射松原木730元/方，较上期上涨。整体来看，原木现货价 格偏弱运行，江苏市场普涨。 • 期货端，截至1月7日收盘，原木主力2603报收782元/方，震荡偏强。2026年1月上旬，进口针叶原木散货船海运费（新西兰→中国）25美元 /JAS方，较2025年12月下旬下跌1美元/JAS方，环比下跌3.85%。 ➢ 供应： • 2025年12月，新西兰原木离港船只约55条，月环比增加6条，总发货量约204万方，较11月189.2万方增加8%。其中，42条船发往中国，发货量 约152.1万方，占比75%，较11月145.2万方增加5%。近期发中国船数仍有增幅，1月中旬到港集中，海外供应减量尚未体现。 • 本周13港原木预计到港量：2025/12/29-2026/1/4，中国13港新西兰针叶原木预计到船15条，较上周增加6条，周环比增加6 ...

融 研 究 院 聚酯：上强下弱局面延续 期 货 金 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 弘 业 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 p 后市研判 研 究 院 PTA：成本带动及下游聚酯端韧性支撑下，PTA表现相对偏强。值得注意的是，随着终端负荷回落，后期聚酯负荷检修增加， 上方或有压力，整体预计小幅偏强波动； 货 金 融 MEG：国内还处于高供应状态，港口库存持稳，政策宽松引导下，原料提升带动MEG反弹，预计低位震荡局面，绝对价格下方 不太悲观； 业 期 短纤：短纤库存压力不大，随着成本拉涨加工费压缩，下游纱厂备货不佳，绝对价格跟随原料震荡局面； 弘 瓶片：库存压力不大，开工率有所提升，加工费尚可，跟随原料波动，相对偏强； 风险点：原油 政策 装置变动 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 Ø PX格局良好，利润较高 研 究 院 1月初，美军突袭委内瑞拉，油价多空分歧明显，盘面波动加剧震荡局面。而下游化工品依旧较为强势。25年末福佳大化扩产30万吨产能，而剔除辽 阳石化的30万吨、洛阳石化的23万吨长停装置后，25年PX产能呈现负 ...

豆一偏强，豆粕延续震荡 2026年1月6日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一主力2605合约节后冲高，在4300附近遇阻回落。现货价格继续上涨，富锦大豆市场价由4200元/吨涨至4320元/ 吨附近。豆一基差震荡走强，盘面维持贴水。 豆粕主力2605合约上下震荡。豆粕现货价格小落，张家港43粕由3070元/吨落至3050元/吨附近。基差震荡走强，盘 面贴水扩大。 （1）国产大豆销售加速，东北过半，国储大豆拍卖补充。据钢联：截至1月2日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至47%，环 比降3%；安徽大豆余粮占比落至52%，环比降3%；河南大豆余粮占比落至57%，环比降3%；山东大豆余粮占比落至58%， 环比降4%。在国产优质大豆预期偏紧的情况下，国储大豆大量拍卖补充市场。 （2）进口大豆拍卖暂缓，港口大豆库存回落。进口大豆拍卖12月19号后暂无公告。中方采购大豆有所放缓，11月 国内进口大豆811万吨，环比再落，同比仍增13.3%；港口大豆库存持续回落。据钢联：截至1月2日，油厂大豆到港量为 230.1万吨，环比大增；港口大豆库存为823.6万吨，环比持续回落。 ...

分析师：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资咨询资格证：Z0023501 弘 研 究 院 期 货 金 贵金属周报：地缘局势扰动， 贵金属波动加剧 | 品种 | 主要观点 | 相关策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 在12月22日至1月4日期间，国外贵金属涨跌互现，COMEX黄金期货跌 | 院 | | | 幅为1.03%，报4341.90美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨幅为7.08%，报 | | | | 72.27美元/盎司。国内贵金属也随之涨跌互现，沪金下跌幅度为 | 究 | | | 0.27%,收于977.56元/克；沪银上涨幅度为11.92%，收于17074.00元/ 研 | 贵金属在年末出现一波 | | | 千克。结构上来看，白银表现优于黄金，金银比价继续下行。 融 | 回调的主要原因是由资 | | | 美国经济数据方面，最新公布的2025年第三季度GDP增速高达4.3%， | 金行为、市场恐慌情绪 | | | 金 不仅远超市场预期，还创下了两年来的最快增速。尽管GDP数据超出 | 与芝商所上调保证金事 | | | 预期，但是市场对此保持谨慎态度，这是由于此前美国政府停摆使 ...

铁水产量回升，盘面高位震荡 铁矿石周报 20260106 供应：外矿方面，12月29日-1月4日，全球铁矿石发运总量3213.7万吨，环比减少463.4万吨；澳洲发运量1939.6万吨，环比减 少174.1万吨；巴西发运量792.5万吨，环比减少151.5万吨，非主流矿发运量1029万吨，环比减少191.1万吨。中国45港到港总 量2756.4万吨，环比增加155万吨。内矿方面，截至12月31日，全国186家矿山铁精粉日均产量43.33万吨，环比降0.06万吨， 产能利用率55.45%，环比降0.08%；矿山精粉库存84.52万吨，环比降0.95万吨。 需求：12月31日当周，日均铁水产量227.43万吨，环比+0.85万吨。钢厂产量指标限制结束，部分钢厂高炉复产，铁水产量回 升，对矿价有所支撑。 库存：本期进口矿库存延续增加，在港船舶数量增加2艘至105艘。本期压港小幅增加，到港维持高位，港口库存延续累库，维 持高位水平，而钢厂库存低位小幅增加，冬储补库预期仍存支撑。 基差：05、09合约基差小幅回升。 利润：钢厂盈利率小幅回升，进口矿价在100-105美元/吨区间震荡。 总结：本期全球发运环比季节性回落， ...

研 究 院 货 金 融 避险情绪推动，铜价再度大涨 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 研 究 院 周末美国突袭委内瑞拉，带走总统马杜罗，多个国家强烈抗议。由于国际形势紧张，避险情绪上升，金属市场全线 大涨。铂，钯暴涨，黄金白银大涨，并且带动铜、铝等传统有色金属普遍大涨。叠加节后补库需求，日内有色金属持续 上行。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报101350，现货报100720，沪铜日内持续拉升，现货较期货贴水-1810点。今日现货基差 升水35点，现货成交略有好转。LME现货升水扩大至39美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦 铜库存小幅下降，沪铜库存明显上升，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率大涨，洋山铜溢价大幅下降至41.5美元，国内现 货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比上升至7.88，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1288点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘。 | | | | 铜市场指标监测 | | 院 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

研 究 院 货 金 融 炒作热情升温，沪铝再创新高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 研 究 院 周末美国突袭委内瑞拉，带走总统马杜罗，多个国家强烈抗议。由于国际形势紧张，避险情绪上升，金属市场 全线大涨。铂，钯暴涨，黄金白银大涨，并且带动铜、铝等传统有色金属普遍大涨。俄乌谈判没有进展，假期期间伦 铝大涨。今日沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报23645，现货报23310，现货较期货贴水-335点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水-230元， 今日现货成交有所好转。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，氧化铝库存小幅上升。上期所铝库存小幅上升，淡季高位现 货需求较差。LME库存上升，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-25美元，海外现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率上涨，铝价沪伦 比大幅上升至7.67，内盘走势强于外盘。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油大跌，俄罗斯等国能源出口受限，伦铝大涨，在3061美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨创新 高，收于23645，技术形态强势。沪铝成交持仓均上升，增仓上行，市场情绪乐观。本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with high inventories and strong cost support at the bottom. The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the northern operating rate [2]. - The polysilicon market also shows weak supply and demand, with inventory pressure still existing. However, due to strong price support in the market and downstream market games, it is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [3]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week. The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated at a low level, closing at 8,860 yuan/ton on December 31 [2][7]. - **Supply**: In early January, some production capacities in Xinjiang were cut, and the output decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in Yunnan remained stable, and that in Sichuan slightly decreased. Overall, the output of industrial silicon continued to decline month - on - month [2][16]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon was basically stable, and the output in December increased slightly month - on - month. In January, some enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline. The output change of organic silicon was limited, and there was still a possibility of decline under the background of emission reduction and price support. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was basically stable. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 557,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week [2]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 4, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [11]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and corrected at a high level, closing at 57,920 yuan/ton on December 31 [3][14]. - **Supply**: The expected output of polysilicon in December was 114,500 tons. In January, a small number of enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: Recently, there was an obvious game in the polysilicon market, with more inquiries from downstream. Under the influence of the establishment of the polysilicon production capacity integration platform and the expected sales restriction in January, leading enterprises strongly supported the price. Downstream silicon wafer enterprises increased the production reduction intensity, and maintained rigid demand procurement in the short term. Enterprises with low inventory increased the procurement intensity. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 287,800 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week [3][22]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafer**: As of January 4, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475, and 1.65 yuan/piece respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.05, 0.05, 0.075, and 0.05 yuan/piece respectively. The price of the silicon wafer market strengthened, and the transaction increased significantly compared with the previous period [26]. - **Battery Chip**: As of January 4, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.38 yuan/watt respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/watt. The battery chips were strongly pulled up by cost drivers [30]. - **Component**: As of January 4, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.685, 0.705, 0.685, and 0.705 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The cost of components increased, and enterprises successively raised their quotes, but the overall transaction was weak in the off - season at the end of the year, showing a situation of high prices but few transactions [33]. Organic Silicon - **Price and Operation**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The offers of mainstream monomer factories of organic silicon remained stable. The raw material inventories of some downstream silicone rubber and silicone oil enterprises were gradually consumed, and the inquiry and procurement increased. The operating rate change was not large in January, and it was expected to weaken [35][37]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Operation**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 22,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was stable, and they purchased at low prices as needed [41].