沪铅延续震荡 基本面变化 上周伦铅库存高位继续回落，仍处于近五年来的高位，现货维持深度贴水，海外铅供需面仍偏宽松。8月进口铅精矿加 工费进一步回落，国内外铅矿紧张程度加剧，部分原生铅企业计划检修，产能释放受限。目前废电瓶原料紧张矛盾并未缓解， 废电瓶价格仅小幅回落，再生铅企业亏损较大，复产与新项目增量有限。 下游蓄电池开工相对稳定，传统消费旺季未显现，电动自行车电池需求疲软，企业订单驱动生产，批发价上行受阻，经 销商库存升历史高位，终端消费仍较为低迷。 整体来看，供需双弱，国内库存相对高位，铅价上下两难，或继续震荡。后期关注开学季来临需求改善情况和再生铅 生产动态。 加工费：2025年6月国内铅矿进口为118026吨,环比上升13.54%，终结二连降,处于近五年高位水平。SMM显示国内外铅精矿紧张 加剧，加工费低位继续回落。8月国内月度加工费400-600元/吨，月度环比下降50元；进口月度加工费位-70--50美元/干吨， 月度环比下降15美元。现货加工费方面，国内铅矿周度加工费为400-600元/吨，周度环比持平；进口周度加工费为-100--60美 元/干吨，周度环比下降15美元。 供应：SMM显示7月全 ...

USDA月度供需 数据跟踪 2025年8月 | | | 玉米数据偏空，美玉米产量调增，期末库存大幅调增。 南美巴西及阿根廷产量未调整，全球期末库存调增。 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：（百万吨） | | 期 初 | 产 量 | USDA玉米供需数据跟踪 进 口 | 消 费 | 出 口 | 期 | | | | | | | | | 末 | | 全 | | 283.11 | 1288.58 | 192.16 | 1289.15 | 200.86 | 282.54 | | 球 | 环 比 | -0.38% | 1.97% | 2.34% | 1.05% | 2.58% | 3.84% | | | 同 比 | -10.33% | 5.10% | 4.66% | 2.43% | 3.73% | -0.20% | | 美 | | 33.152 | 425.257 | 0.635 | 332.247 | 73.028 | 53.769 | | 国 | 环 比 | -2.61% | 6.60% | 0.00% | 2.71% ...

弘业期货金融研究院 —2025081 聚乙烯：供应有减少预期，需求 向旺季过渡 5 张永鸽 从业资格号：F0282934 投资咨询证号：Z0011351 张艳雯 从业资格号：F03088843 价格：本周国内聚乙烯现货价格涨跌互现，周度波动幅度8-64元/吨。受宏观面利好支撑，供应整体稳定，LDPE和LLDPE价格持续 坚挺；HDPE因部分产品供应增加、出货不畅，价格小幅回落。具体来看，HDPE薄膜报7969元/吨，较上周涨11元/吨；LDPE薄膜 9583元/吨，上涨64元/吨；LLDPE薄膜7466元/吨，上涨13元/吨。 供应：本周国内聚乙烯供应量变化不大，产量66.12万吨，环比增0.1万吨，产能利用率升至86.82%，环比上涨,1.1%。本期，聚乙烯 产量涉及延长中煤、齐鲁石化、大庆石化、辽阳石化等装置重启，新增国能新疆、抚顺石化等装置检修。下期预测市场供应因新增 计划检修，如抚顺石化、万华化学、连云港石化等，以及前期检修装置尚未重启而预期减少， 弘业期货金融研究院 下游需求：本周聚乙烯下游行业整体开工率39.47%，较上周微升0.35%，但下周预计回落0.57%，且较往年同期仍显偏弱。农膜行 业开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report points out that due to high macro - uncertainty, copper prices continue to fluctuate. The international situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, has high uncertainty, leading to cautious market sentiment. Technically, copper prices are in high - level oscillations, with short - term possible continuation of the trend and poor medium - term fundamentals. The supply - demand situation shows high inventories and insufficient demand, resulting in weak spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The US - Russia talks on Saturday morning had no clear progress. The US dollar fell and the euro rose on Friday, with most non - ferrous metals dropping at night, led by aluminum. European and Ukrainian leaders went to the US, increasing international situation uncertainty. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose slightly during the day, and all non - ferrous metals declined. Shanghai copper, international copper, and LME copper fell, while domestic spot copper rose [1]. - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 78,950, and the spot price was 79,430. The intraday high of Shanghai copper was followed by a decline, with a spot premium of 480 points. The spot basis premium rose to 225 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount widened to -$94 this week, indicating weak external spot demand [1]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the inventories of US copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper all increased, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to $48.5, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. - The LME - Shanghai copper ratio remained at 8.13, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased to 207 points, with the external price - to - ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - LME copper oscillated and fell slightly, trading around $9,744. Shanghai copper rose first and then fell, closing at 78,950, with a neutral technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2]. Market Indicators | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (USD/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 12 | 7.1856 | 250 | 47 | | - 83 | 8.13 | | Aug 13 | 7.1816 | 180 | 47 | | - 87 | 8.10 | | Aug 14 | 7.1822 | 180 | 47 | | - 79 | 8.07 | | Aug 15 | 7.1890 | 210 | 48.5 | | - 89 | 8.10 | | Aug 18 | 7.1837 | 480 | 48.5 | | - 94 | 8.13 | [3]

铝周报—俄乌局势影响较大，沪铝大幅震荡 2025-8-11 1 中国 7 月汽车和新能源汽车销量表现较好，周五美联储官员称年内可能降息 3 次，美俄总统会谈时间确定，市场情绪好转，有色金属多数上涨。今日人民银 行大幅净回笼货币，中汽协公布 7 月汽车产销量，环比下降，同比延续 13%以上 的高增长。日内人民币上涨美元下跌，市场情绪偏强，有色金属全线上涨。沪铝 上涨，伦铝下跌，国内现货铝下跌。 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报 20700，现货报 20630，现货贴水-70 点。上周 沪铝上涨，本周现货贴水持平于-40 元，现货成交好转。本周国内电解铝社会库 存大幅上升，氧化铝社会库存上升。上期所铝库存上升，现货消费好转。LME 现 货库存本周下降，LME 现货贴水-2 美元。人民币汇率本周小幅上涨，铝价沪伦比 本周下降至 7.93，内盘走势弱于外盘。 技术上看，今日原油大跌，伦铝震荡小幅下跌，在 2614 美元附近运行。沪 铝今日小幅上涨，收于 20700，技术形态略有好转。沪铝成交持仓均上升，市场 情绪略有好转。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，现货成交好转。反内卷炒作明显 退烧，氧化铝大跌，本轮炒作可能就此结束。目前淡 ...

铜周报—市场情绪好转，铜价回归震荡 中国 7 月汽车和新能源汽车销量表现较好，周五美联储官员称年内可能降息 3 次，美俄总统会谈时间确定，市场情绪好转，有色金属多数上涨。今日人民银 行大幅净回笼货币，中汽协公布 7 月汽车产销量，环比下降，同比延续 13%以上 的高增长。日内人民币上涨美元下跌，市场情绪偏强，有色金属全线上涨。沪铜 上涨，国际铜上涨，伦铜下跌，国内现货铜上涨。 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报 79020，现货报 79190，沪铜日内震荡，现货升 水 170 点。今日现货基差升水小幅上升至 150 点，现货成交不佳。LME 现货贴水 本周扩大至-70 美元，外盘现货需求不佳。本周美铜，伦铜库存大幅上升，沪铜 库存小幅上升，现货需求不足。本周人民币汇率小幅上涨，洋山铜溢价小幅下降 至 43.5 美元，国内现货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比持平于 8.09，国际铜较沪铜升水 上升至 306 点，外盘比价高于内盘，市场情绪好转。 技术上看，今日伦铜震荡小幅下跌，在 9755 美元附近运行。沪铜大涨，收 于 79020，技术形态好转。沪铜成交持仓均上升，市场情绪偏强。美联储降息预 期上升，美俄总统会晤在即，市场情绪好转 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The decline rate slowed down, but the absolute value was at a low level. The new crop is growing well with an expected increase in production. The operating rates of downstream spinning mills and weaving mills continued to decline, accompanied by an increase in finished product inventories. It is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and cotton import policies [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Supply Situation - **Domestic Cotton**: As of mid - July, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 580,000 tons and a decrease of 287,000 tons from the end of June. The new crop growth is good with an expected increase in production [3] - **US Cotton**: As of August 3, in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US, the budding rate was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. Although the cotton - planting area decreased this year, the high good - to - excellent rate indicates a promising yield [4] 2. Downstream Market Conditions - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of this Wednesday, the operating rates of spinning mills and grey fabric mills were 49.3 and 47.7 respectively, slightly down from last week. The finished product inventories were 30 and 33.8 days respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days and 0.1 days. The operating load indexes of spinning mills and fabric mills continued to be at the lowest in the past three years, and the finished product inventories continued to be at the highest in the past three years. Spinning mills' raw material inventories are at the highest level in the same period in recent years, while weaving mills' cotton yarn inventories are at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, indicating low downstream confidence [5] - **Export and Retail**: According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending July 17, the weekly net signing of 2024/25 US upland cotton was - 7,400 tons, including 10,000 tons of cancelled contracts. The weekly signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%, including 9,700 tons from Vietnam and 3,700 tons from Pakistan [21] 3. Price and Basis Situation - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 15,191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 134 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,521 yuan/ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 154 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 20,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract was 19,705 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 915 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 5 yuan/ton [41] - **Price Index Changes**: The CotlookA price index increased from 78.2 cents/pound on July 30, 2025, to 78.25 cents/pound on August 6, 2025, an increase of 0.05 cents/pound. The Indian S - 6 spot price decreased from 57,000 rupees/candy on July 31, 2025, to 56,800 rupees/candy on August 7, 2025, a decrease of 200 rupees/candy [10] - **Import Price Changes**: From July 31 to August 7, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all decreased. The arrival prices of imported cotton also decreased, with the US EMOT M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 79 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 44 yuan/ton; the Brazilian M's 1% tariff price decreasing by 181 yuan/ton and the sliding - scale tariff price decreasing by 105 yuan/ton [11] 4. Market Inventory and Position Situation - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 8,677; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 88 [53] - **Futures Positions**: The content provides the trends of ICE 2 - grade cotton futures' non - priced sell orders, non - priced buy orders, and futures positions (active contracts and continuous contracts) [48]

铝周报—炒作退烧需求不足，沪铝后市震荡偏弱 周五中国 7 月经济数据不及预期，美国公布对等关税全部税率，美国非农就 业数据不及预期，且大幅下修前两月数据，美国经济衰退风险和降息预期同步上 升。夜间美元暴跌人民币大涨，市场走弱。今日中国汽车等机械行业数据乐观， 市场情绪好转，日内市场整体小幅走强，有色金属多数上涨。沪铝上涨，伦铝上 涨，国内现货价铝下跌。 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报 20525，现货报 20480，现货贴水-45 点。上周 沪铝大跌，本周现货转为贴水-40 元，现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存 上升，氧化铝社会库存下降。上期所铝库存上升，现货消费不佳。LME 现货库存 本周上升，LME 现货转为贴水-3 美元。人民币汇率本周小幅上涨，铝价沪伦比本 周大幅上升至 8.06，外盘走势弱于内盘。 技术上看，今日原油小幅上涨，伦铝小幅上涨，在 2577 美元附近运行。沪 铝今日低开高走小幅上涨，收于 20525，技术形态略有好转。沪铝成交持仓均下 降，市场情绪偏向谨慎。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，现货成交不佳。反内卷 炒作明显退烧，氧化铝大跌，沪铝跟随下跌，本轮炒作可能就此结束。目前淡季， 现货需求不 ...

钯上市交易指南 张天骜 南京大学理学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 电话：025-52278450 邮箱：zhangtianao@ftol.com.cn 风险提示： 新品种刚上市时市场不够成熟，因此不确定性较高，波动性较大。激进型投资者 可以考虑小仓位参与交易，稳健型投资者建议观望。行业内企业及专业投资者建 议积极进行套期保值操作，以规避短期价格大幅波动的风险。总而言之，建议投 资者保持谨慎，及时规避风险。 1. 品种简介： 钯（Palladium），元素符号 Pd，钯的原子序数为 46，相对原子质量为 106.42。 位于元素周期表中的第五周期Ⅷ族。属于铂系元素。电子层排布为 2-8-18-18。 物理性质： 钯是一种带有银白色光泽的金属，外观与铂金相似。密度为 12.023 g/cm³， 在铂族金属中密度最低，因此比铂金轻。硬度较软为 4~4.5，比铂金稍硬。有良 好的延展性和可塑性能，适合锻造、压延和拉丝。钯的熔点是铂族金属中最低的， 是 1554℃，沸点为 2970℃。导电性和导热性好。 钯具有优秀的吸氢性，块状金属钯能吸收大量氢气， ...

铜周报—基本面承压，铜价震荡下行 周五中国 7 月经济数据不及预期，美国公布对等关税全部税率，美国非农就 业数据不及预期，且大幅下修前两月数据，美国经济衰退风险和降息预期同步上 升。夜间美元暴跌人民币大涨，市场走弱。今日中国汽车等机械行业数据乐观， 市场情绪好转，日内市场整体小幅走强，有色金属多数上涨。沪铜上涨，国际铜 上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 2025-8-4 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报 78330，现货报 78510，沪铜日内探底回升，现 货升水扩大至 180 点。今日现货基差升水小幅上升至 180 点，现货成交不佳。LME 现货贴水本周小幅收窄至-49 美元，外盘现货需求不佳。本周美铜库存大幅上升， 伦铜库存大幅上升，沪铜库存小幅下降。本周人民币汇率小幅上涨，洋山铜溢价 小幅下降至 50.5 美元，国内现货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比上升至 8.17，国际铜较 沪铜升水下降至 194 点，外盘比价小幅高于内盘，市场情绪偏弱。 技术上看，今日伦铜震荡小幅上涨，在 9670 美元附近运行。沪铜探底回升 小幅上涨，收于 78330，技术形态偏弱。沪铜成交持仓 ...