KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 02:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 238.62% for the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 154.755 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.52% [3] - The company benefits from increased sales in its copper and cobalt business in the Democratic Republic of Congo, alongside effective cost management [3] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 11.813 billion yuan, 13.496 billion yuan, and 16.618 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.62, and 0.77 yuan [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a net profit of 8.273 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a 238.62% increase year-on-year [3] - The operating cash flow net amount increased by 71.10% to 17.281 billion yuan [5] - The copper production from the Congo projects reached 476,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 78.20%, while cobalt production increased by 127.39% to 84,700 tons [4] - The company’s free cash flow surged by 874% to 12.41 billion yuan [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 198.594 billion yuan in 2024 to 210.207 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4% in 2026 [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2024 to 17.6% in 2026 [6] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 5.9% in 2024 to 7.9% in 2026 [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s mining segment has shown stable performance, with the TFM and KFM projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo reaching full production capacity [4] - The trading segment has improved operational quality, achieving a year-on-year growth of 61.40% to 920 million yuan [4] - The company is focusing on optimizing its business lines by concentrating on high-margin products and reducing the volume of lower-margin products [4]