KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 02:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the performance is driven by investment activities with a year-on-year increase of 65.5% in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 38.31 billion yuan. The annualized ROE stands at 19.5%, up by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters is 14.24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.9%, with a margin of 20.1%, which is an increase of 6.2 percentage points year-on-year. The report predicts NBV growth rates of 35.2%, 16.9%, and 10.9% for 2024-2026 [1][2]. - The report indicates a stable and high-quality growth in liabilities, with a focus on value in the bancassurance channel, despite a slight decline in insurance service revenue [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 38.31 billion yuan, a 65.5% increase year-on-year. The underwriting and investment service performance grew by 0.6% and 152% respectively [1]. - The annualized ROE reached 19.5%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, and net assets increased by 10% compared to the beginning of the year [1]. New Business Value - The NBV for the first three quarters is 14.24 billion yuan, up 37.9% year-on-year, with a margin of 20.1%, which is an increase of 6.2 percentage points year-on-year. The growth rate of NBV in Q3 compared to H1 2024 is 22.8% [1]. - Forecasts for NBV growth are 35.2%, 16.9%, and 10.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. Liability and Insurance Services - The insurance service revenue for the first three quarters is 62.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the scale premium reached 230.1 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year [1]. - The overall new single premium decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, but Q3 showed a recovery with a 16.4% increase [1]. Investment Assets and Returns - As of the end of Q3 2024, total investment assets reached 2.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.9% from the beginning of the year, with annualized net and total investment returns of 3.9% and 6.3% respectively [1]. - The report notes that the improvement in the equity market has positively impacted the fair value of FVTPL assets, contributing to a significant increase in investment income [1].