QINCHUAN(000837) 国金证券·2024-10-31 02:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][8]. Core Views - The machine tool industry is currently experiencing weak demand, leading to pressure on the company's performance. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 2.886 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.31% to CNY 56 million [1][2]. - The company has launched an employee stock incentive plan to enhance the motivation of its core team, aiming for significant net profit growth targets over the next three years [1]. - The company is optimistic about the growth prospects of its components business, particularly in the robotics sector, with plans to expand production capabilities based on market demand [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 865 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.26%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.89%. The net profit for the same period was CNY 13 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 166.47% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.55% [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 4.093 billion, with a growth rate of 8.82% expected in 2024, followed by 16.07% in 2025 and 17.31% in 2026 [4][5]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 77 million in 2024, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching CNY 239 million by 2026 [4][5]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 116X for 2024, decreasing to 38X by 2026, reflecting anticipated improvements in profitability [2][4]. Market Outlook - The machine tool industry is under pressure, with key industry players reporting a 3.5% decline in revenue and a 9.9% drop in total profits from January to August 2024. However, there is potential for recovery supported by fiscal stimulus and equipment upgrade policies [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its robotics-related products, which are expected to have strong applications across various industrial sectors, including medical devices and automated guided vehicles [1].