Topband(002139) 长江证券·2024-10-31 02:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The controller industry is recovering, leading to a revenue growth of 21% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with a strong order backlog. The company is actively advancing its overseas strategy to enhance international operations and expand market share [5][7]. - The company has seen significant growth in overseas production capacity, particularly in established bases in Vietnam and India, and new bases in Mexico and Romania, which have begun mass production. This has resulted in a notable increase in overseas revenue [5][6][7]. - The company is investing in research and development for energy storage, charging, and robotics, maintaining its focus on new and strategic business areas, which is contributing to revenue recovery and improved profitability [5][6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 552 million yuan, up 46.7% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 539 million yuan, an increase of 42.1% [3][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.684 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, with a net profit of 163 million yuan, up 38.1% year-on-year [3][5]. Profitability and Cost Control - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 23.71%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. The Q3 gross margin was 23.36%, up 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved customer concentration and a higher proportion of high-value products [6]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 6.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with overall expense control showing good results [6]. Overseas Expansion - The revenue from overseas bases in Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Romania reached 1.011 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 72.65%. The share of overseas revenue in total revenue rose to 20.16% [6][7]. - The company’s proactive multi-regional layout has led to rapid capacity ramp-up in overseas production, with limited negative impact from tariff policies based on historical experience [6]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 722 million yuan, 924 million yuan, and 1.112 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 28%, and 20%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 20, 15, and 13 times [7].