缅甸停产封关，利好中重稀土

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) with a target price of 11.01 local currency [2] - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Northern Rare Earth (600111 CH) with a target price of 24.28 local currency [2][3] Core Views - Myanmar's shutdown of rare earth mining and border closures are expected to lead to a shortage of medium and heavy rare earths, potentially driving up prices [4] - The global rare earth supply is tightening due to reduced domestic quota growth and overseas supply disruptions, while demand from new energy vehicles and humanoid robots is expected to grow rapidly [7] - The rare earth industry has reached a cyclical bottom, and the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve [7] Industry Analysis - Myanmar, the third-largest rare earth producer globally, accounts for 11% of global rare earth ore production in 2023 [5] - From January to September 2024, China imported 31,000 tons of rare earth oxides from Myanmar, accounting for 74.9% of total oxide imports during the same period [4] - China's domestic smelting and separation plants currently have about 2 months of raw material inventory, but prolonged border closures could lead to shortages [6] - The second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation quotas for 2024 shows a year-on-year increase of 5.88% and 4.16%, respectively, but the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [7] Company Analysis Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) - H1 2024 revenue was 5.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.45%, with a net loss of 68.517 million yuan [13] - Q2 2024 revenue was 2.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.02%, but net profit increased by 2128.67% year-on-year to 147 million yuan [13] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.30, 0.52, and 0.63 yuan for 2024-2026 [13] Northern Rare Earth (600111 CH) - Q3 2024 revenue was 8.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.54%, with net profit of 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.94% [13] - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 21.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.50%, with net profit of 405 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.64% [13] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.28, 0.73, and 1.13 yuan for 2024-2026 [13]