Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 1.143 billion, a decrease of 31.61% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of CNY 81 million, down 73.86% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 390 million, a year-on-year decline of 16.81% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.52%, with a net profit of CNY 12 million, down 68.75% year-on-year and down 73.98% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to the continuous drop in carbon fiber raw silk prices due to relatively weak demand in China [2]. - The company has made significant progress in the construction of new production capacity and is increasing its R&D efforts in the carbon fiber sector [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the average market price of large and small tow carbon fiber in China was CNY 75.2 and CNY 108.7 per kilogram, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 26.7% and 27.3% [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.15%, a decrease of 14.23 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses were 0.4%, 1.7%, 3.5%, and 5.7%, with year-on-year changes of +0.2, +0.3, -0.9, and +2.2 percentage points, respectively [2]. Production Capacity and R&D - The company is on track with the construction of its new projects, including a 150,000-ton carbon fiber raw silk production project, which is over 80% complete [2]. - The company has launched a 30,000-ton high-performance carbon fiber raw silk project, which began trial production in July 2024, achieving significant improvements in key performance indicators [2]. - The company has also developed a 6,000-ton carbon fiber additive project to localize the production of carbon fiber raw silk oil agents, thereby reducing costs [2]. - The 35K raw silk developed by the company has been successfully applied in wind turbine blades by Vestas in Denmark, showcasing the success of its wet spinning technology [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the continued low prices of carbon fiber raw silk, the profit forecasts for 2024-2025 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of CNY 119 million (down 80.7%), CNY 146 million (down 79.5%), and CNY 158 million for 2026 [2]. - The report expresses optimism about the company's growth as a leading domestic carbon fiber raw silk producer and maintains the "Accumulate" rating [2].
吉林碳谷：2024年三季报点评：碳纤维价格下跌公司盈利下滑，新增产能建设顺利