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2024年10月策略月报：流动性改善有望助推市场回暖
Wanlian Securities·2024-10-31 03:35

Market Overview - As of October 25, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,299.70 points, down 1.10% from the end of September. The major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 Index rising the most at 13.62% and the ChiNext Index following at 2.93% [1][12] - The A-share market sentiment continued to recover, with trading activity increasing compared to September. The growth sectors gained momentum as risk appetite improved [10][29] Liquidity and Capital Flow - As of October 28, 2024, the scale of restricted stock unlocks decreased month-on-month, and industrial capital shifted to net buying, with a net increase of 11.656 billion yuan. The total unlock amount for A-shares was approximately 111.479 billion yuan, down 43.99% from the previous month [21][26] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by 23.84% month-on-month, reaching 7,468.39 billion yuan as of October 25, 2024 [23][26] Earnings Analysis - In September 2024, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.50% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue growth at 2.10%. The profit margin slightly declined to 5.27% [18][21] - The profit growth rates for state-owned, joint-stock, and private enterprises showed a decline, with joint-stock enterprises and private enterprises at -4.90% and -0.60% respectively [18][21] Policy Analysis - The People's Bank of China implemented a series of monetary policy tools to support economic stability, including a reduction in the LPR by 25 basis points. The central bank emphasized the need for strong macroeconomic support policies [21][23] Valuation Levels - As of October 25, 2024, the dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the STAR 50 Index was at a historical percentile of 73.61%, indicating a significant increase from the previous month [36][37] - The current P/E ratios for major indices show that most are below historical average levels, suggesting potential for recovery in valuations [36][37]